Mississippi Senate Race Heats Up as Democrats Mobilize Against Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith

Democratic former district-attorney Scott Colom is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for Mississippi’s U.S. Senate seat in the midterm election. The race, long considered a safe Republican hold, has drawn national attention, with former President Donald Trump rallying for Hyde-Smith and a wave of Democratic fundraising and campaign visits arriving in the final weeks.

The Guardian

Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982 and has not sent a Black senator since 1875. Colom, the first Black district attorney for the 16th circuit (elected in 2015) with a 94 % conviction rate, previously unseated a 30-year incumbent in that race. The state’s large Black electorate traditionally leans Democratic, but winning requires strong turnout and a quarter of the white vote. In 2018, Democrat Mike Espy lost a special Senate race to Hyde-Smith by seven points, illustrating the narrow margins possible.

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• Absentee voting surged: 56,049 ballots received as of 27 October, up from 22,221 in 2022.

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• National Democratic fundraising: the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee omitted Mississippi from a $40 million battleground investment in August, but later donors, including Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, contributed more than $500,000 to Colom’s campaign committee.

The Guardian

• Polling forecasts (as of late October): VoteHub assigns a 93.1 % probability that Hyde-Smith will win with 54.7 % of the vote versus 45.3 % for Colom; Poliwave’s simulation shows a 6.8-point Hyde-Smith lead, while its earlier poll indicated a three-point advantage.

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• Cook Political Report rates the race “Likely Republican,” whereas FiftyPlusOne classifies it “safe” for Republicans.

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Political scientist Marvin King argued that national Democrats “waited so late,” suggesting an earlier entry could have altered the race dynamics. King’s critique highlights ongoing frustration among state-level Democrats about historic underinvestment.

The Guardian

Forecasts differ on the race’s competitiveness: Cook Political Report’s “Likely Republican” rating contrasts with FiftyPlusOne’s “safe” designation, while Poliwave’s simulation shows a tighter margin (6.8 points) than VoteHub’s probability model (Hyde-Smith 54.7 % vs. Colom 45.3 %). No source provides a definitive voter-turnout projection, leaving the impact of the surge in absentee ballots uncertain.

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• “The Democrats just basically conceded the state,” — Scott Colom, former president

The Guardian

• “I put these pictures up to remind myself of the joy in it,” — Scott Colom, former president

The Guardian

• “I am here because I am tired of the South being overlooked or diminished in terms of its electoral importance,” — Raphael Warnock, georgia senator

The Guardian

• “If I’m Colom, I’m only upset that the Democrats waited so late,” — Marvin King

The Guardian

• “I feel like I need to do everything I can to represent the values and vision of the people of Mississippi,” — Scott Colom, former president

The Guardian

Absentee ballots can be submitted through the end of the month, the final day for voting at circuit clerk offices. With less than a week remaining, both campaigns will focus on voter outreach and last-minute advertising ahead of Election Day.

Clarion Ledger