Full Breakdown
Democrats Lead Texas Senate Race in Late Poll
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Poll Shows Talarico Ahead of Paxton
A 254 Labs poll conducted between October 21 and 26 surveyed 1,000 registered Texas voters and was weighted to likely-voter targets. The poll placed James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 51% to 43%, with 5% undecided. Among independent voters, Talarico led 60% to 31%, and among voters who said they were more enthusiastic about voting in November than in previous elections, he led 57% to 41%. The same survey gave the rest of the Democratic statewide ticket narrower advantages.
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02
Context: Texas’s Republican Legacy and Paxton’s Legal History
Texas has voted Republican in statewide contests for three decades, and a Democratic win would be the first in 32 years. Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee, was indicted on securities-fraud charges in 2015, impeached by the Texas House in 2023, and saw the criminal case dismissed in 2024 after an agreement, followed by a Senate acquittal. Former President Donald Trump campaigned in Texas to bolster Paxton’s bid, framing the race as pivotal for the Republican Party’s slim Senate majority.
03
Trump’s Texas Campaign Stops and Policy Announcements
In the week leading up to the November 3 congressional elections, Trump made two high-profile stops in the oil-producing state. At a tanker near the Port of Corpus Christi, he highlighted a deal granting the United States access to a fifth of Venezuela’s crude reserves and announced that the oil would flow to refineries owned by ExxonMobil and Citgo. Later in Lubbock, he unveiled an Environmental Protection Agency proposal to roll back Biden-era methane-leak regulations, describing the move as a way to increase energy production and lower costs for consumers and producers.
04
Verbatim Quotes
- “Tonight, I'm officially terminating Biden's expensive and unnecessary methane regulations to save consumers and energy producers $45 billion in costs, unlock vast quantities of Texas natural gas and produce 210 million barrels of oil,” — Donald Trump, president
- “We're celebrating the greatest oil victory in history. To the victor belongs the spoils, right?” — Donald Trump, president
- “Our policy has always been drill, baby, drill. And man, we are drilling now. But if Texas elects Communist James 'Talafreako,' that wealth will rapidly disappear,” — Donald Trump, president