Josh Turek’s Centrist Senate Bid Turns Iowa Into a Pivotal Midterm Battleground

Democratic candidate Josh Turek, a two-term state representative and Paralympic gold-medalist, is facing Republican Ashley Hinson, a three-term U.S. Representative, in one of the nation’s closest Senate races. The outcome will determine whether the Democratic caucus retains its current Senate margin.

Semafor

Iowa has shifted from a swing state in the early 2000s to a GOP-dominated landscape by 2024, with no Democrats in the congressional delegation and Republican supermajorities in the state legislature. Recent Democratic gains in 2022 and 2024 have made the 2026 midterms a focal point for both parties.

Slate

• Josh Turek — Democratic Senate candidate, state Rep. since 2022, Paralympic gold-medalist; positions himself as a “proudly moderate” Democrat.

Semafor

• Ashley Hinson — Republican Senate candidate, U.S. Rep. since 2021, former TV reporter; markets herself as a bipartisan problem-solver.

Slate

• Sen. Chuck Grassley — Republican senior senator from Iowa, critic of Turek’s party alignment.

Semafor

• Rep. J.D. Scholten — Democratic state Rep. from Western Iowa, mentor for Turek’s outreach strategy.

Semafor

• Turek’s 2022 statehouse victory was decided by six votes.

Semafor

• Hinson defeated an incumbent in 2020 and has faced no serious primary challenges.

Slate

• Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the Iowa Legislature; Democrats hold three of four congressional seats as of the 2024 cycle.

Slate

• The most recent Insider Advantage poll shows Hinson with a narrow lead over Turek, though exact percentages are not disclosed.

Slate

• Sen. Chuck Grassley warned that “when he gets to Washington, DC, which isn’t going to happen, he’s going to get a lot of pressure to vote for a lot of these really wild schemes.”

Semafor

• Turek dismissed ads claiming he “voted with Republicans 700+ times” as “fearmongering.”

Semafor

• Hinson’s campaign portrays Turek as a liberal and emphasizes her bipartisan credentials with ads featuring her sons in a symbolic “food fight.”

Semafor

• Rep. J.D. Scholten said Western Iowa’s political reality forces candidates to “talk to everybody,” a dynamic he says has benefited Turek.

Semafor

• “He’s our best candidate since [former Sen. Tom] Harkin,” Scholten added.

Semafor

• A Turek victory would shift the Senate Democratic caucus toward a more centrist orientation, potentially influencing negotiations on border security, farm policy, and data-center legislation.

Semafor

• A Hinson win would reinforce Republican control of Iowa’s federal delegation and bolster the GOP’s agenda in the Senate.

Slate

• Polling data varies: Slate cites an Insider Advantage poll with Hinson holding a “narrowest of leads,” while Semafor provides no specific numbers.

Slate

• No definitive data are available on how many times Turek has voted with Republicans, despite campaign ads claiming “700+” instances.

Semafor

The Senate race will be decided in the November 2026 midterm election. Both campaigns continue to run targeted ads and outreach efforts aimed at Iowa’s sizable independent voter bloc. No further scheduled events are detailed in the sources.

Semafor