Full Breakdown
Israeli Election Deadlock and the Prospect of an Arab-Party Coalition
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
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Core Event: Election results leave no clear majority, positioning Arab parties as kingmakers
Preliminary counts on October 28 showed no bloc reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Incumbent Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu is about seven seats short, while exit polls give Arab parties roughly 17 seats, making the United Arab List (Ra’am) a potential power broker.
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Background & Context: Ra’am’s origins and previous coalition experience
Ra’am is the political vehicle of the Southern Branch of the Islamic Movement, which split from the Northern Branch in 1996 and chose to run in Israeli elections. In the 2021 Bennett-Lapid government, Ra’am secured budgets for Arab municipalities and a role in security briefings, abstaining on confidence votes. In April 2022 the party’s Shura Council temporarily froze its Knesset participation amid Temple Mount tensions, a move coordinated with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.
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Key Figures & Groups
- Benjamin Netanyahu – Likud leader seeking a coalition.
- Mansour Abbas – Ra’am leader and former minister.
- Yoav Segalovich – Former IDF officer, Ra’am’s deputy.
- Bezalel Smotrich – Finance minister known for 2017 sovereignty proposals.
- Sami Abu Shehadeh – Joint List leader barred by the Supreme Court from candidacy.
04
Data & Statistics
- Majority threshold: 61 seats.
- Netanyahu’s shortfall: ? 7 seats.
- Preliminary Arab bloc estimate: ? 17 seats.
05
Official Statements & Responses
- Yoav Segalovitz said dismissing Arab parties after the October 7 2023 attacks is “nonsense,” noting Arab Israeli communities also suffered.
- The Supreme Court ordered Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw his candidacy.
- The 2022 Shura Council pause demonstrated Ra’am’s willingness to follow internal directives while remaining in the coalition.
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Criticism & Opposition
Analysts point to Ra’am’s link to the Southern Branch of the Islamic Movement, which the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia label as terrorist-affiliated. Some right-wing commentators argue that an Islamist-origin party could undermine Israel’s Jewish character and security.
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Why It Matters / Impact
Including Ra’am could supply the seats needed for a stable government and address Arab-community issues such as infrastructure and organized-crime prevention. The move also carries diplomatic weight, as regional states watch Israel’s internal composition for signs of alignment with or opposition to Islamist movements.
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Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Exit-poll figures remain provisional; final seat counts may change. Details on how Ra’am would vote on security measures during crises have not been disclosed, leaving uncertainty about its parliamentary behavior.
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What’s Next
Likud, Ra’am and other parties must negotiate a coalition agreement covering confidence votes, emergency legislation and military operations. Israeli law requires a new coalition before the Knesset’s dissolution deadline, but the timeline remains open.