Full Breakdown
Fresh Low-Pressure System Over South Andaman Sea Threatens Andhra Pradesh After Cyclone Arnab
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In this breakdown
01
Event Overview
On October 29, 2026, a low-pressure area formed over the South Andaman Sea under a cyclonic circulation. Meteorologists expect it to become a well-marked low-pressure area within 24 hours, then concentrate into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and move west-northwestward toward the Andhra Pradesh coast by October 31, 2026. The system is projected to bring heavy rainfall to coastal districts on November 2-3, 2026.
02
Background & Context
Earlier in the week, Cyclone Arnab struck four to six coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and then moved inland, weakening into a depression that produced exceptional rain in Odisha. The post-monsoon period (October-November) is historically prone to low-pressure formations that can intensify.
Visual evidence
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03
Forecasted Rainfall and Impacts
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts heavy rainfall in Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru and Krishna districts on November 2-3, 2026.
- Squally winds of 45-55 km ph with gusts up to 65 km ph are expected along the coast and off Yanam.
- In the preceding 24 hours, Odisha recorded totals: Patrapur (Ganjam) 546 mm, Sorada (Ganjam) 503 mm, Mahendragarh (Gajapati) 458 mm, Udaygiri (Kandhamal) 462 mm.
- APSDMA managing director Prakhar Jain warned residents in low-lying areas along the Vamsadhara and Nagavali rivers to stay alert, avoid crossing overflowing canals, and refrain from swimming.
04
Official Statements & Responses
- HR Biswas, senior scientist, IMD, Kolkata, described the system’s evolution and projected west-northwest movement.
- IMD officials in Amaravati said the new low-pressure area “most likely” will affect Andhra Pradesh.
- APSDMA’s Prakhar Jain issued alerts for flood-prone zones and advised precautionary measures for communities near the Vamsadhara and Nagavali rivers.
05
Data & Statistics
- Recorded rainfall in Odisha: 546 mm (Patrapur), 503 mm (Sorada), 458 mm (Mahendragarh), 462 mm (Udaygiri).
- Remnant circulation of Arnab moved northward at 18 km ph over the last six hours.
- Forecast wind speeds along the Andhra coast: 45-55 km ph, gusts up to 65 km ph.
06
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Independent trackers project the system could remain a low-pressure area and shift toward north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh, while IMD models show likely intensification into a depression moving toward the Andhra coast. No official cyclone warning has been issued, leaving a gap in public advisories.
07
Verbatim Quotes
- “A cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea has intensified into a low-pressure system in the early hours of Thursday. It is very likely to move in a west-northwest direction and intensify further into a well-marked low pressure over the Andaman Sea and the area adjoining the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 72 hours,” — HR Biswas, IMD Kolkata
- “While April and May are known as the pre-monsoon cyclone months, October and November are known as the post-monsoon cyclone months. It is during these months that weather systems such as a low-pressure area and depression often intensify into cyclones,” — an official
- “The entire system (remnant of Arnab) moved with a speed of 18 kmph in the last six hours. It is expected to push further north and lose its steam further, eventually weakening into a well-marked low-pressure system by Thursday evening,” — the official