Full Breakdown
Starbucks Posts Strong U.S. Sales but Misses Revenue Forecast as International Demand Slows
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Core Event
On October 29, Starbucks Corp. released its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results. Global same-store sales grew 7.2%, driven by a 7.7% rise in U.S. comparable sales, while international same-store sales were under 1% and store traffic fell 2.8%. Net revenue slipped 4% to $9.14 billion, below the $9.2 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.80, above the $0.72 estimate. Shares fell about 2% after hours.
02
Background & Context
The results follow CEO Brian Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” overhaul launched in 2024, which emphasized menu simplification and operational efficiencies. Earlier this year the company completed a $4 billion joint-venture with Boyu Capital, transferring control of its China retail operations while retaining a 40% stake. Starbucks also announced the closure of roughly 250 North American stores and has completed more than 1,700 store renovations across the U.S. and Canada.
Visual evidence
Images from the story
03
Data & Statistics
Swipe across the table to see all columns.
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global same-store sales growth (Q4) | 7.2% | Company earnings release |
| U.S. same-store sales growth (Q4) | 7.7% | Company earnings release |
| International same-store sales growth (Q4) | <1% | Company earnings release |
| International store traffic change (Q4) | -2.8% | Company earnings release |
| Net revenue (Q4) | $9.14 billion (-4%) | Company earnings release |
| Adjusted EPS (Q4) | $0.80 (vs. $0.72 est.) | Company earnings release |
| Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS outlook | $3.15-$3.25 (vs. $3.14 est.) | Starbucks guidance |
| Fiscal 2027 revenue outlook | -1% (vs. analysts’ +1.4% expected) | Starbucks guidance |
| New-store openings (Q4) | 303 net | Company earnings release |
| Share repurchase plan | $1 billion | Company announcement |
| Matcha-based drinks revenue | $1 billion platform | Company comment |
04
Official Statements & Responses
CFO Cathy Smith noted that the shift to a licensed model abroad and the China joint venture would weigh on full-year revenue, despite modest coffee-price deflation. She also highlighted progress in supply-chain reliability, with daily deliveries now reaching close to 90% of North American stores.
05
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Analyst expectations for fiscal-2027 revenue varied, with some forecasts calling for a 1.4% increase versus Starbucks’ projected 1% decline, creating a gap between market expectations and management’s outlook. No third-party verification of the projected 90% delivery coverage was provided.
06
Verbatim Quotes
- “We enter fiscal 2027 with momentum, a clear set of priorities and higher ambitions for what Starbucks can become,” — CEO Brian Niccol
- “Starbucks brand affinity is at near record levels as our menu innovation, marketing and merchandise continue to create moments that drive culture and bring people into our coffee houses,” — Brian Niccol
07
What’s Next
Starbucks will allocate $1 billion to share repurchases in fiscal 2027 and continue rolling out AI-driven ordering tools while pursuing further store closures and renovations to sharpen profitability.