Trump’s October Senate-Race Blitz Shows Mixed Effects on Polls and Markets

In early October, former President Donald Trump embarked on a rapid-fire rally tour across eight Senate contests—Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina. Newsweek’s analysis compared Silver Bulletin polling averages on October 1 (the date of Trump’s first rally in each state) with the latest model on October 28, and recorded Kalshi and Polymarket prediction-market prices on October 1 and October 29. Across the full period, four races moved modestly toward Republicans and four toward Democrats, with no single margin shifting by more than two points.

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• Kansas saw the steepest market decline: Republican Roger Marshall’s price fell over 14 points on both platforms, flipping the lead to Democrat Adam Hamilton.

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• Ohio and Texas showed modest polling gains for GOP candidates while market confidence slipped; Ohio’s Republican Husted dropped 8.6 points on Kalshi and 10 points on Polymarket.

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• Alaska was an outlier: Republican Dan Sullivan gained 1.3 points on Kalshi and 2 points on Polymarket, even as Democrat Mary Peltola extended her polling edge by one point.

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• Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina remained largely stable, with prediction-market prices staying near 93 percent for incumbents.

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Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, noted that “the evidence is mixed at best about the impact of Trump’s influence on the campaign trail in congressional races.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik added that Trump’s influence appears to be waning, though isolating the effect of individual appearances remains difficult.

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The analysis concludes that the rallies’ direct impact on voter decisions cannot be confirmed before November 3, the scheduled election day. Newsweek also announced a November 10 webinar to discuss broader AI policy implications for the midterms.

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• “President Trump is the greatest force for turnout in American politics, and that's why he is barnstorming the country and driving voters to the polls in the final stretch.” — Natalie Baldassarre, the Republican National Committee’s national press secretary

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• “The evidence is mixed at best about the impact of Trump’s influence on the campaign trail in congressional races," Panagopoulos told Newsweek.” — Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University

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