Democrats Lead in Multiple 2026 Senate Races, Raising Prospects for Senate Shift

Two new surveys released this week show Democrat Rev. Adam Hamilton ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, with margins of 50 %-47 % (Emerson poll) and 54 %-44 % (Washington Post survey). Similar Democratic leads appear in other contests: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas (49 %-43 % in a CNN poll and 49 %-47 % in a Texas Southern University/YouGov poll); Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins in Maine (49 %-45 % in a CNN poll); Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan (49 %-42 % in a CNN poll); and Democrat Chris Pappas leads former Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire (48 %-41 % in a UMass Lowell poll).

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Aggregated polling from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin indicates Democrats hold an 8.9-point national advantage (50.6 %-41.7 %) over Republicans, up from a 6.7-point lead a month earlier. Betting markets assign Democrats a roughly 91 % chance of retaining the House and similar odds for taking control of the Senate. If these trends hold, the current 53-47 Republican Senate majority could be at risk, potentially limiting the ability of President Trump’s agenda to advance through legislation.

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• Kansas Senate: Hamilton 50 %-47 % (Emerson) and 54 %-44 % (Washington Post).

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• Texas Senate: Talarico 49 %-43 % (CNN) and 49 %-47 % (TSU/YouGov).

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• Maine Senate: Jackson 49 %-45 % (CNN).

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• Michigan Senate: El-Sayed 49 %-42 % (CNN).

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• New Hampshire House: Pappas 48 %-41 % (UMass Lowell).

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• National Democratic advantage: 8.9 points (Silver Bulletin).

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Market-based forecasts from ForbesPredict give Democrats an 82 % probability of winning the House and an equal chance of securing Senate control. Should the Senate flip, it would create a split Congress, constraining the president’s legislative agenda and potentially prompting Democratic-led investigations into the administration’s actions. The polling trends suggest a competitive midterm environment, with several traditionally Republican seats now within Democratic reach.

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