Full Breakdown
Early-Voting Surge Highlights 2026 Midterm Stakes in Senate Battlegrounds
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Core Event
Five days before Election Day, the Associated Press analysis shows more than 43 million Americans have cast early ballots, nearly 10 million more than in 2022. Texas leads with over 6.3 million early voters—a 50 percent rise from 2022. Florida reports more than 4.2 million early ballots, roughly 31 percent of its registered voters. Georgia has already surpassed its 2022 in-person early-voting record with 2.29 million voters.
02
Background & Context
Early-voting participation has risen steadily since 2016, driven by expanded mail-in options and “no-excuse” absentee voting in 29 states. All states except Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire allow in-person early voting; eight states and D.C. conduct elections entirely by mail. The 2026 midterms feature high-profile Senate contests in Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, alongside gubernatorial races in Texas and Florida.
Visual evidence
Images from the story
03
Data & Statistics
Swipe across the table to see all columns.
| State | Early Votes (as of deadline) | Notable Races |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | > 6.3 million (? 31 % of 19 million registered) | U.S. Senate – Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D); Governor – Greg Abbott (R) vs. Gina Hinojosa (D) |
| Florida | > 4.2 million (? 31 % of 13.7 million registered) | U.S. Senate – Ashley Moody (R) vs. Angie Nixon (D); Governor – Byron Donalds (R) vs. David Jolly (D) |
| Georgia | > 2.29 million in-person early votes | No statewide Senate race, but early-voting trends signal strong turnout. |
| South Carolina | Early voting up 83 % (exact number not given) | Senate seat to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). |
Party-affiliation data where available show 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have voted early nationwide. In Texas, early voters with Democratic primary histories outnumber those with Republican histories by roughly 70,000.
04
Official Statements & Responses
- Texas Secretary of State: personal-appearance early voting runs Oct 19–30; mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, post-marked by Nov 4.
- Florida officials: Oct 31 is the final day of the mandatory early-voting period, with some counties extending to Nov 1.
- Texas Comptroller’s office warned GOP operatives that the early-vote trend “is not in our favor,” urging Republican voters to turn out before the deadline.
05
Criticism & Opposition
- Don Huffines, Texas Comptroller, described the early-vote pattern as “not going well” for Republicans and urged voters to be “scared and concerned.”
- Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project, called the shift “ahistorical,” noting that Republicans traditionally enjoy a sizable advantage among identifiable partisan voters.
06
Verbatim Quotes
- “Right now, it is not going well. You need to know that. And you need to be scared and you need to be concerned. The early vote is not in our favor,” — Texas Comptroller Don Huffines
- “It's ahistorical. It's not something that we normally see. Usually Republicans have a significant advantage in those voters that we can identify as partisan in one way or another at this time in the race,” — Joshua Blank, Texas Politics Project
07
Why It Matters
The Senate races in Texas and South Carolina could determine which party controls the chamber; Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and need a net gain of four seats to retain control. Early-voting data suggest tighter margins than in previous cycles, especially in Texas where Democratic-leaning counties such as Harris and Dallas have set early-turnout records. Campaign finance filings show James Talarico has raised $146.3 million versus Ken Paxton’s $22.3 million as of Oct 14.