Full Breakdown
Texas 2026 Midterms: Democrats Narrow Gap in Senate and Governor Races
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Core Contest Overview
A late-October poll of 2,000 likely Texas voters shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 47%. The same poll finds incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by three points, 50% to 47%. Both races feature candidates with unfavorable favorability ratings.
02
Background & Context
Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since 1990 and no Democratic senator since 1988. The 2026 midterms are viewed as a test of Republican dominance after President Donald Trump carried the state in the three preceding presidential elections. Redistricting in 2025 reshaped several U.S. House districts to favor Republicans, while Democrats are contesting every statewide office for the first time since 1972.
03
Data & Statistics
- Fundraising: Talarico has raised more than $146.3 million; Paxton has raised $22.3 million. Independent expenditures give Paxton a spending edge, with billionaire Elon Musk contributing $158 million to a Republican-supporting Senate Leadership PAC and an additional $10 million to a Texas-focused PAC.
- Demographic splits (Senate): Talarico leads Latino voters by 14 points, Black voters by 88 points, women by 8 points, voters aged 18-34 by 50 points, and college-educated voters 55% to 41%.
- Demographic splits (Governor): Abbott leads white voters 58% to 42%; Hinojosa leads Latino voters by 10 points and Black voters by 65 points. Among voters 55 and older, Abbott leads by 22 points; among voters under 35, Hinojosa leads by 49 points.
04
Official Statements & Responses
Both candidates emphasize affordability: Talarico promises middle-class tax cuts, higher taxes on billionaires, and repeal of Trump’s import tariffs; Paxton vows tax cuts, reduced federal spending, and deregulation of energy companies.
05
Criticism & Opposition
Jill Tate, president of the Texas Federation of Republican Women, notes that about 40% of conservative women she contacts express doubts about Paxton because of his marital issues.
06
On-the-Ground Reports
Latino turnout has surged, with 1.56 million Latino ballots cast by mid-October—nearly double the 2022 figure. Voters such as Rick Arredondo, a 52-year-old welder, cite personal experiences with ICE raids, while others point to high fuel costs and economic strain.
07
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The poll shows Abbott leading Hinojosa 50-47% overall, yet a subgroup of voters aged 35-54 is “virtually tied” at 49-47%. Favorability data also varies across demographic slices, and no final vote totals are available. Neither Paxton nor Talarico provided interview comments for this reporting cycle.
08
Verbatim Quotes
- “We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” — Democrat James Talarico
- “Higher Latino turnout is almost certainly going to be good for the Democratic candidates,” — Tom Bonier, senior adviser
- “I’ve never seen us have to work quite so hard to win in my 30 years,” — Jill Tate
09
What’s Next
Texans will cast ballots on November 3. Early and absentee voting trends suggest a high volume of mail-in ballots, and the Associated Press will declare winners only after all viable scenarios are exhausted. The outcomes will determine whether Democrats can break the Republican hold on statewide offices and potentially reshape the national political map ahead of the 2028 presidential cycle.