Full Breakdown
Senate Races Nearing the Midterm Finish Line
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Closest Contests and Candidate Dynamics
In the final days before Election Day, several Senate races are drawing intense attention. In Ohio, a private poll commissioned by a Republican group shows Vivek Ramaswamy trailing Democrat Amy Acton by eight points, a six-point drop from an earlier survey, according to a GOP strategist working on Ohio races. Michigan’s contest pits Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers, a test of whether a progressive candidate can win in a swing state that President Donald Trump carried by less than one percentage point in 2024. New Hampshire’s Republican John E. — a message aimed at the state’s fiercely independent electorate. In Texas, Democrats hope James Talarico could flip a seat that has not been held by a Democrat for more than three decades, while Republicans have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into defending the incumbent. Alaska’s race could hinge on ranked-choice voting and a legal dispute over a potential spoiler candidate named Dan Sullivan; Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign denies involvement in the alleged recruitment effort reported by The New York Times.
02
Advertising Strategies and Messaging
Republican campaign ads have focused on immigration, crime and transgender issues, while Democratic ads more frequently reference corruption, high costs and Trump, according to an analysis of more than 600 TV ads by Bridget Bowman. Ted Cruz described El-Sayed as a “theocratic zealot” and “jihadist leprechaun,” linking him to the Muslim Brotherhood—a claim the Democrat has publicly rejected.
03
Donald Trump’s Campaign Presence
President Trump has spent nearly every day this month traveling to boost Republican turnout in tight Senate races, making three trips to Texas alone, yet he has avoided New Hampshire, a state he lost in all three presidential contests. His endorsement power is being tested in Texas, where he backed Attorney General Ken Paxton despite concerns from fellow Republicans about Paxton’s electability.
04
Potential Senate Balance and What to Watch
Analysts note that Michigan and Texas are among the few pickup opportunities for Republicans; a win in either could solidify their Senate control. Alaska’s ranked-choice system and pending legal challenges could delay the final outcome for weeks. As the countdown continues, the interplay of ads, candidate positioning and Trump’s involvement will shape the final composition of the Senate.