Full Breakdown
Trump’s Plummeting Approval Shapes the 2024 Midterm Outlook
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Historic Low Approval Ahead of the November 3 Midterms
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26 placed President Donald Trump’s approval at 32 percent. A Pew Research Center poll earlier this month recorded 30 percent, while *The Economist* reported a net approval of –27 (34 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove). These are the lowest figures for any sitting president heading into a midterm since Harry Truman in 1946. A 73 percent share of Americans say they are extremely or very concerned about fuel prices, a concern linked to the ongoing war on Iran.
Watch
Related reporting
ex
As Trump threatens reporters, polls show poor approval ratings
02
Background & Context
Midterm elections traditionally penalize the president’s party; since 1946, the president’s party has lost an average of 26.5 House seats. No president has entered a midterm with approval as low as Trump’s, and he trails his 2018 rating by nearly ten points. The war on Iran—an open-ended confrontation—has cost at least 21 U.S. service members dead and more than 800 wounded, while Iranian missiles have struck bases such as Al Udeid in Qatar. Economic pressures from tariffs, tax cuts that pushed federal debt past $40 trillion, and cuts to food and health benefits have compounded voter anxiety about the cost of living.
03
Data & Statistics
- Approval ratings: 32 % (Reuters/Ipsos, Oct 26); 30 % (Pew, early Oct.); net –27 (The Economist, week before election).
- Economic concerns: 84 % of registered voters rank the economy as “very important”; 57 % rank foreign policy as “very important.” Only 26 % approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and 17 % approve of his cost-of-living policies (AP-NORC poll).
- Fuel-price anxiety: 73 % extremely/very concerned.
- Congressional balance: Republicans hold 53 Senate seats; Democrats and two independents hold 47. A 50-50 Senate would still favor Republicans because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to seize control.
04
Official Statements & Responses
- President Trump asserted at a Lubbock rally that “prices have fallen,” while crowd signs demanded “LOWER PRICES.” He also urged voters at a South Carolina rally to “pretend” he is on the ballot.
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett dismissed affordability worries as a “myth.”
05
Criticism & Opposition
- Peter Enns, professor of government at Cornell University, linked Trump’s low approval to “unpopular policies” and cited the Iran conflict as a driver of high gas prices.
- Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. condemned a campaign advertisement that invoked the childhood abuse of a candidate’s birth mother, calling the tactic “cruelty” and “indecency.”
06
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Approval metrics differ: the Reuters/Ipsos poll (32 %), the Pew poll (30 %), and *The Economist*’s net-approval figure (–27) use distinct methodologies, producing non-comparable numbers. No source provides a unified composite rating.
- War impact data: while casualty figures are reported, independent verification of the total economic cost of the Iran conflict remains absent.
07
What’s Next
- November 3 is the scheduled date for voters to elect all 435 House members, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governors. The outcome will determine whether Democrats can overturn the historical midterm trend and capture both chambers, or whether Republicans retain control despite the president’s historically low approval.