Israel’s Election Results Keep U.S. Military Aid on the Table

With 99.5 % of votes counted, Israel’s Central Elections Committee announced that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc will hold 53 Knesset seats, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot will have 48. Neither bloc reaches the 61-seat majority, meaning coalition talks will involve the nine Zionist parties and the two Arab-interest parties. The composition of the future government will therefore be decided through negotiations rather than a clear electoral mandate.

Reason

Under the current U.S.–Israel agreement that began in fiscal year 2019, the United States pledged $38 billion in military assistance through fiscal year 2028, contingent on congressional appropriations. Of that total, $33 billion is allocated via Foreign Military Financing (FMF) grants, which let Israel purchase American weapons with costs reimbursed by U.S. tax dollars. Data from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency show that between fiscal years 2020 and 2024, almost $13 billion—representing 90.5 % of all U.S.–to-Israel arms transfers—were paid for through FMF grants. A Congressional Research Service (CRS) analysis found that FMF grants account for roughly 14 % of Israel’s overall defense budget. Since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, Al Jazeera reported that the United States has approved $33.16 billion in arms transfers to Israel, the vast majority funded by FMF.

Reason

Netanyahu has indicated a desire to shift Israel away from a donor-recipient model toward joint defense collaboration, though the CRS notes that Israel’s largely American-made fighter fleet and missile-defense architecture make such a transition difficult. Eisenkot, who has signaled a willingness to lead a coalition, stated he would continue to seek the $3.8 billion in annual aid currently provided by the United States and praised former President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran alongside Israel.

Reason

With U.S. public debt exceeding $32 trillion, analysts argue that military aid to a highly developed ally like Israel is a potential area for spending cuts. However, the longstanding U.S. practice of financing Israel’s defense, reinforced by bipartisan political support, suggests that immediate reductions are unlikely, leaving American taxpayers to continue bearing a significant portion of Israel’s defense costs.

Reason