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U.S. Recession Odds Plummet Amid Strong Economic Growth

1/11/2025

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Summary

Story summary

The New York Fed reports a reduced 29% chance of U.S. recession in 2025, down from 70% in June 2023.
Strong economic growth is evident, with a 3.1% GDP increase in Q3 2024 and increasing consumer spending.
Potential tariffs and immigration restrictions may pose risks to growth and inflation.
Experts anticipate a possible 10% stock market correction but remain optimistic about long-term prospects.

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Story summary

The New York Fed reports a reduced 29% chance of U.S. recession in 2025, down from 70% in June 2023.
Strong economic growth is evident, with a 3.1% GDP increase in Q3 2024 and increasing consumer spending.
Potential tariffs and immigration restrictions may pose risks to growth and inflation.
Experts anticipate a possible 10% stock market correction but remain optimistic about long-term prospects.