The Transformative Potential of AI in Global Trade: Insights from the WTO Report

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its 2025 World Trade Report, projecting that artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of global trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040. This growth is attributed to significant reductions in trade costs and enhancements in productivity. The report estimates that global trade could expand by 34-37%, while global GDP may rise by 12-13% under various scenarios. However, the benefits of AI are contingent upon the implementation of inclusive policies and investments in digital infrastructure, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

TRT WorldReutersAI could lift global trade flows by nearly 40% by 2040: WTOAI holds potential to boost global trade 40% by 2040 – WTOAI can help boost global trade by 40pc by 2040: WTOWTO sees AI aiding cross-border trade by 40% amid uneven access concernsWTO Projects AI Could Raise Global Trade Value by 40% by 2040 • Okay.ngAI trade gains could lift low-and middle-income economies – Windhoek ObserverAI expected to boost global trade by 37% — WTO

The report emphasizes that AI can serve as a powerful enabler of trade by improving access to AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and cloud services, which accounted for $2.3 trillion in global trade in 2023. It highlights that businesses utilizing AI have reported measurable improvements in trade-related activities, with nearly 90% of firms experiencing benefits. The potential for AI to enhance trade efficiency is particularly pronounced in digitally deliverable services, which are projected to grow by 42%.

AI can help boost global trade by 40pc by 2040: WTOAI could lift global trade flows by nearly 40% by 2040: WTOWTO sees AI aiding cross-border trade by 40% amid uneven access concernsAI holds potential to boost global trade 40% by 2040 – WTOWTO Projects AI Could Raise Global Trade Value by 40% by 2040 • Okay.ngAI trade gains could lift low-and middle-income economies – Windhoek ObserverAI expected to boost global trade by 37% — WTO

Despite the optimistic projections, the WTO warns that the current distribution of access to AI technologies is uneven. High-income countries are better positioned to leverage AI, with projected income growth of 14% by 2040, compared to just 8% for low-income economies. The report stresses that without targeted investments to bridge the digital divide, poorer nations risk falling further behind. For instance, if low- and middle-income countries can halve their digital infrastructure gaps, their income gains could reach 15% and 14%, respectively.

AI trade gains could lift low-and middle-income economies – Windhoek Observer

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for a comprehensive approach to ensure that the benefits of AI are shared widely. This includes investments in education, skills development, and social safety nets to mitigate the impact of job displacement due to automation. The report also highlights the need for predictable trade policies and lower tariffs on essential AI-related imports to facilitate access.

AI holds potential to boost global trade 40% by 2040 – WTO

The report notes a concerning trend of increasing protectionism, with quantitative restrictions on AI-enabling goods rising from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024, primarily imposed by high- and upper-middle-income countries. Some low-income countries still impose tariffs as high as 45% on critical AI-related imports, further limiting their access to essential technologies.

AI can help boost global trade by 40pc by 2040: WTO

The WTO's findings underscore the dual nature of AI's potential: it can either drive inclusive growth or exacerbate existing inequalities. The future impact of AI on global trade will depend heavily on current policy choices. As the WTO emphasizes, proactive measures are essential to ensure that AI serves as a catalyst for shared prosperity rather than a source of division. The organization remains committed to fostering international cooperation and dialogue to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by AI in the global trading system.

AI holds potential to boost global trade 40% by 2040 – WTO

• “AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment.” — Johanna Hill, Deputy Director General, WTO

AI trade gains could lift low-and middle-income economies – Windhoek Observer

• “‘With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, WTO

AI can help boost global trade by 40pc by 2040: WTO

• “transformative potential of AI is not guaranteed for everyone alike” — Johanna Hill, Deputy Director General, WTO

AI trade gains could lift low-and middle-income economies – Windhoek Observer