Full Breakdown
Madagascar Faces Potential Coup Amid Escalating Protests
10/13/2025, 8:05:37 AM
Attempted Coup Declared by President Rajoelina
Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina announced on October 12, 2025, that an "attempt to seize power illegally and by force" is underway in the country. This declaration followed significant unrest, marked by the involvement of the elite CAPSAT military unit in youth-led protests demanding Rajoelina's resignation. The protests, which began on September 25 over chronic water and electricity shortages, have escalated into broader calls for political reform, addressing issues such as corruption and high unemployment.
CAPSAT's Shift in Allegiance
The CAPSAT unit, which played a crucial role in Rajoelina's rise to power during a 2009 coup, has publicly sided with the protesters. On October 11, members of CAPSAT urged fellow soldiers to disobey orders and support the demonstrators. Colonel Michael Randrianirina, a commander of the unit, stated that all orders from the military would now originate from CAPSAT headquarters, effectively claiming control over Madagascar's armed forces. This shift represents a dramatic turn in the political landscape, as the very soldiers who once supported Rajoelina are now calling for his ousting.
Protests and Government Response
The protests, organized by a group known as "Gen Z Madagascar," have drawn thousands to the streets, particularly in the capital, Antananarivo. Demonstrators have been vocal about their dissatisfaction with Rajoelina's administration, demanding not only his resignation but also an apology for violence against protesters and the dissolution of the Senate and electoral commission. The United Nations reports that at least 22 people have died in the unrest, a figure disputed by the government, which claims the death toll is lower.
In response to the escalating crisis, Rajoelina dismissed his entire government on September 29, appointing a military general as the new prime minister. However, this move has failed to quell public anger, with protesters continuing to demand more substantial changes.
Official Statements and Reactions
Rajoelina's office condemned the actions of the military and called for unity among national forces to defend constitutional order. In a statement, the presidency emphasized the gravity of the situation and urged all parties to engage in dialogue to resolve the crisis. Meanwhile, the newly appointed Prime Minister Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo expressed the government's readiness to listen to all factions, including youth and military representatives.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics of Rajoelina's government have highlighted the administration's failure to address systemic issues such as poverty, corruption, and inadequate public services. The protests have been characterized by a youthful energy, with demonstrators drawing inspiration from similar movements in countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka. The Gen Z Madagascar movement has utilized social media to mobilize support and organize demonstrations, reflecting a shift in how political activism is conducted in the digital age.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
While the United Nations has reported at least 22 fatalities, the government disputes this figure, asserting that only 12 deaths occurred, all attributed to "looters and vandals." This discrepancy underscores the tension between official narratives and the experiences of citizens on the ground.
What's Next?
As the situation in Madagascar remains volatile, the international community is closely monitoring developments. The African Union has called for calm and restraint, while Air France has suspended flights to the island amid security concerns. The future of Rajoelina's presidency hangs in the balance as the protests continue to gain momentum, with the potential for further military involvement in the political crisis.
