The Evolution and Decline of Black Friday Shopping

Black Friday, once a hallmark of in-person shopping, has undergone significant changes in recent years, driven by evolving consumer habits and retail strategies. Traditionally, Black Friday was characterized by early morning lines and in-store promotions. However, as online shopping gained traction—accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic—retailers have adapted their approaches. Major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Macy's are now launching holiday sales earlier in the season and spacing out promotions across multiple events, including Cyber Monday. This shift reflects a broader trend where millions of shoppers prefer to shop online rather than visit physical stores.

CNBC

Data from the National Retail Federation and Placer.ai indicates that while Black Friday remains a critical day for retailers, foot traffic has plateaued since a post-COVID spike. In fact, for the past six years, more consumers have opted for online shopping over in-store experiences on Black Friday. The Bank of America Institute reports a decline in the number of millennials and Generation X consumers planning to make the majority of their purchases on Black Friday, while interest among Gen Z and baby boomers has remained relatively stable.

CNBC

The period known as the Turkey 5, which spans from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, has also seen a decline in consumer spending. According to the National Retail Federation, spending during this period has decreased nearly 13% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected 4% drop in average spending this year, as reported by a recent Deloitte survey. This trend suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious with their spending, reflecting broader economic concerns.

CNBC

The modern iteration of Black Friday emerged in the 1980s, requiring extensive planning from retailers to ensure successful sales. Initially, the event was confined to a single day, but as its popularity grew, retailers began to extend promotions, opening stores earlier and even on Thanksgiving. This dilution of the event's significance has made it increasingly challenging for retailers to manage inventory and staffing effectively. As discounts became widespread across various departments, the operational complexities intensified.

CNBC

Retail experts note that the shift towards online shopping has diminished the need for elaborate in-store events on Black Friday. Denish Shah, a marketing professor at Georgia State University, emphasized that consumers now prefer to spread their spending across multiple pay periods, making the extended shopping season more appealing.

CNBC

Despite the ongoing evolution of Black Friday, some critics question the value of the discounts offered during this period. Concerns have been raised about the authenticity of promotions, especially in a soft economy where retailers are simultaneously raising prices to counteract tariffs. This skepticism may contribute to the declining enthusiasm for Black Friday shopping.

CNBC

• “Whereas now it goes over weeks, over multiple days, and most of the time the consumers are doing it from the comfort of their home through online sales.” — Denish Shah, Professor of Marketing, Georgia State University

CNBC

• “to sustain the ride, they started to dilute it.” — Retail Expert

CNBC

• “November and December are two different pay periods for many consumers,” — Denish Shah, Professor of Marketing, Georgia State University

CNBC

The transformation of Black Friday reflects broader changes in consumer behavior and retail strategies, indicating a potential shift in how holiday shopping will be approached in the future.

CNBC