Full Breakdown
The Supply Chain Behind Russia's Iskander Missiles: A Deep Dive
12/4/2025, 5:02:22 AM
Overview of the Iskander Missile Attacks
In recent months, Russia has intensified its use of Iskander-M ballistic missiles in attacks against Ukrainian cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties. Notably, on November 11, 2024, a missile strike in Kryvyi Rih killed a mother and her three children, while a subsequent attack on April 4, 2025, claimed the lives of 18 individuals, including nine children, in a playground. These incidents highlight the devastating impact of the Iskander missile program on civilian populations in Ukraine.
The Chemical Supply Chain
Central to the production of the Iskander missiles is ammonium perchlorate, a key component of its solid propellant. Russia lacks the domestic capacity to produce high-purity sodium chlorate, essential for manufacturing ammonium perchlorate, and thus relies on imports. A significant supplier is Farg'onaazot, a chemical plant in Uzbekistan owned by Singapore-based Indorama Corporation, which shipped $11.4 million worth of sodium chlorate to Russia in 2024 and an additional $6.9 million in the first half of 2025.
Sanctions and Vulnerabilities
Despite sodium chlorate being subject to EU sanctions, major suppliers like Farg'onaazot remain unsanctioned. Olena Yurchenko, director for analysis at the Economic Security Council of Ukraine, pointed out that existing sanctions have structural loopholes that allow these suppliers to continue operations. She emphasized the need for comprehensive sanctions that target all solid-fuel chemical precursors and their suppliers, including those based in third countries.
Criticism of Current Sanctions
Critics argue that the current sanctions regime is insufficient to disrupt Russia's missile production capabilities. Yurchenko noted that while some sectors, like aviation, have been effectively cut off, others have adapted through "parallel imports" and indirect supply chains. This adaptability raises concerns about the effectiveness of sanctions in curbing Russia's military capabilities.
Broader Implications
The ongoing supply of chemicals for missile production not only threatens Ukraine but also poses risks to global security. Ukrainian intelligence has warned that the weapons used against Ukraine could be employed against other states in the future. The War & Sanctions portal, maintained by Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, has identified nearly 50 companies involved in the Iskander missile supply chain, with many remaining unsanctioned.
Official Statements & Responses
Ukrainian officials have called for synchronized action and stronger sanctions to close the loopholes in the current sanctions regime. They stress the importance of coordinated pressure from Western allies to prevent the flow of dual-use goods that support Russia's military efforts.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Weapons Russia is using against Ukraine today may be used tomorrow against other states,” — Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR)
- “A credible closing of the loopholes therefore requires completing the listing of all solid-fuel chemical precursors, extending compliance obligations to non-EU subsidiaries of EU-based groups, and imposing blocking sanctions on the key foreign producers and Russian importers directly involved in supplying chemicals for the missile program,” — Olena Yurchenko, Economic Security Council of Ukraine
- “If Uzbek and key Chinese suppliers were removed from the market simultaneously, Russia would face a prolonged period of supply instability, higher costs and reduced production flexibility for the Iskander missile program,” — Olena Yurchenko, Economic Security Council of Ukraine
Conclusion
The intricate supply chain supporting Russia's Iskander missile program underscores the challenges faced by Ukraine and its allies in addressing the ongoing conflict. The reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly from Uzbekistan and China, highlights critical vulnerabilities that could be exploited through more robust sanctions. As the situation evolves, the need for coordinated international action remains paramount to mitigate the risks posed by these weapons.
