Understanding Vaccine Hesitancy Amid Rising Flu Cases

As the flu season progresses, the United States has reported over 81,000 hospitalizations and 3,100 deaths attributed to the virus. Despite these alarming statistics, vaccination rates remain low, with only 34 percent of adults having received a flu shot as of December 2025. Among those who opted not to vaccinate, 16 percent expressed concerns about the vaccine's safety, while 13 percent believed they "never get sick."

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Research conducted by Valerie Reyna, a psychology professor at Cornell University, sheds light on the psychological factors influencing vaccination decisions. Reyna's studies indicate that individuals often rely on intuition rather than a rational assessment of risks and benefits when deciding whether to get vaccinated. Traditional public health campaigns have focused on presenting quantitative data about the flu vaccine's effectiveness and risks. However, Reyna's findings suggest that this approach may not resonate with the public, as it overlooks the emotional and intuitive aspects of decision-making.

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In her research, which involved over 700 college students and nearly 200 community members, Reyna found that vaccine knowledge and accessibility accounted for only 14 percent of the variation in vaccination intentions among younger adults. In contrast, when considering participants' intuitive responses—termed "gist" questions—this predictive ability increased significantly, from 14 percent to 58 percent. Similarly, in the community sample, gist questions improved the prediction of vaccination intentions from 57 percent to 80 percent.

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Reyna emphasizes that people often form a "global impression" based on the qualitative essence of the information they receive. For instance, individuals who perceive the benefits of vaccination as high and the risks as negligible are more likely to get vaccinated. Conversely, those who categorize the benefits as low or the risks as high tend to avoid vaccination. This distinction highlights the importance of understanding how individuals process information on a deeper emotional level.

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To address vaccine hesitancy effectively, Reyna advocates for a shift in public health communication strategies. She suggests that practitioners should present facts within a contextual framework that aligns with individuals' core values, such as the desire to protect family and community members. By focusing on the qualitative gist of vaccination benefits and risks, public health campaigns can foster a more favorable perception of the flu vaccine.

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The findings from Reyna's research underscore the complexity of vaccine hesitancy, revealing that emotional and intuitive factors play a significant role in decision-making. As the flu season continues, adapting communication strategies to resonate with individuals' values and perceptions may be crucial in increasing vaccination rates and ultimately reducing the impact of the flu on public health.

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• “We make decisions based on the bottom-line gist of information: What does all this information boil down to?” — Valerie Reyna, Professor of Psychology

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• “If you follow that recipe, you will be much more likely to make a difference with people, according to our research,” — Valerie Reyna, Professor of Psychology

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