Historic Decline in Coal Power Generation in China and India

In 2025, both China and India experienced a historic decline in coal power generation for the first time since 1973. According to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, electricity generation from coal fell by 1.6% in China and 3.0% in India. This decline occurred despite rising electricity demand in both countries, driven largely by a record increase in renewable energy capacity that outpaced demand growth.

Carbon BriefCoal Power Generation Drops in India, China for the First Time in 52 YearsThe Guardian

China added over 300 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 100 GW of wind power in 2025, marking unprecedented growth for any country. In India, renewable energy capacity also surged, with 35 GW of solar, 6 GW of wind, and 3.5 GW of hydropower added during the same period. The rapid expansion of non-fossil energy sources allowed both nations to meet their energy needs without relying on coal, which has historically been the backbone of their electricity generation.

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The simultaneous drop in coal power generation in these two countries, which together accounted for 93% of the rise in global carbon dioxide emissions from 2015 to 2024, has significant implications for global emissions. Analysts suggest that if China can maintain its clean energy growth and India meets its renewable energy targets, both countries could peak coal-fired power before 2030. This shift could contribute to a broader decline in global coal consumption and emissions.

The GuardianChina, India See First Drop in Coal Power Use in Half a CenturyCarbon Brief

Despite the positive developments, both countries face challenges in sustaining this momentum. In China, continued coal power capacity expansion poses risks of underutilization, as new plants are built to meet peak demand. Similarly, India plans to increase its coal power capacity by 46% by 2030, which could counteract the gains made in renewable energy. Both nations must also update their power market structures to accommodate the growing share of renewables, ensuring that the grid can handle intermittent energy sources effectively.

Carbon BriefChina, India See First Drop in Coal Power Use in Half a CenturyClean Technica

Critics argue that while the decline in coal power is a positive step, it may not signify a permanent shift away from fossil fuels. The ongoing construction of new coal plants in both countries raises concerns about long-term reliance on coal, especially during periods of high demand. Additionally, extreme weather conditions could increase electricity demand for cooling, potentially reversing the recent declines in coal use.

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Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA, emphasized the significance of this moment, stating, “The decline in coal power output in both countries marks a historic moment, which could help lead to a peak in global emissions.” He noted that the growth in clean energy has finally outpaced demand growth, a shift that has not been observed in recent years.

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Looking forward, both China and India must navigate the complexities of integrating renewable energy into their power systems while managing existing coal capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global coal use could decline by 2030, largely influenced by trends in these two major economies. The coming years will be critical in determining whether the recent declines in coal power generation will lead to a sustained transition towards cleaner energy sources.

China, India See First Drop in Coal Power Use in Half a CenturyCoal Power Generation Drops in India, China for the First Time in 52 Years