Full Breakdown
The Decline of the Luxury Watch Market: A Shift from Flashy to Quiet Luxury
1/19/2026, 11:45:23 PM
Overview of the Current Market Landscape
The luxury watch market is experiencing a significant downturn following a period of rapid growth during the pandemic. According to Claudia D'Arpizio, a partner at Bain & Company, while brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet are still seeing some growth, the majority of luxury watchmakers are facing stagnation or decline. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index indicates that secondhand luxury watch prices have decreased by 33% from their peak after the pandemic, although there has been a slight recovery of about 5% over the past year.
Factors Contributing to Market Decline
Several factors have contributed to the cooling of the luxury watch market. The post-COVID bubble was fueled by unique circumstances, including increased leisure time and speculative investments in cryptocurrencies and meme stocks, which attracted new buyers to the watch market. However, as crypto markets crashed and consumer spending slowed due to rising living costs and a return to work, demand for luxury watches diminished. Additionally, China's economic slowdown, marked by a property crisis and its worst GDP growth rate in decades, has further impacted luxury consumption.
The Shift in Consumer Preferences
The pandemic era was characterized by a demand for flashy styles and limited edition models, primarily driven by ultrawealthy consumers. However, the current trend is shifting towards "quiet luxury," where consumers are favoring classic and understated timepieces. D'Arpizio notes that while luxury watches remain status symbols, there is a growing preference for timeless designs that reflect personal achievement rather than public display. This change in consumer behavior is evident as buyers now prioritize recognizable, classic pieces over more ostentatious options.
Criticism & Opposition
Industry experts express skepticism about the future of the luxury watch market. Andrew Morgan, a watch consultant, believes that the market peaked in 2022 and anticipates only "shallow" growth in the coming years. He emphasizes that many models, particularly integrated and stainless-steel sports watches, are experiencing significant depreciation immediately after sale. This sentiment is echoed by Müller, who suggests that the market is unlikely to return to the high prices seen during the pandemic.
Official Statements & Responses
D'Arpizio highlights that the luxury watch market's revenue growth has collapsed from its 2020 peak and is expected to remain near zero through the end of the decade. She speculates that the market may be nearing its bottom but acknowledges the difficulty in predicting future trends.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I don't think we will get back anytime soon to those crazy high prices that we have seen,” — Oliver Müller, Founder of LuxeConsult
- “I think to get to those prices, again, we're talking decades,” — Andrew Morgan, Watch Consultant
- “These SKUs are superstars and very recognizable, so they are not really quiet, but for sure the model stays, and the value stays,” — Claudia D'Arpizio, Partner at Bain & Company
The luxury watch market is currently navigating a challenging landscape marked by changing consumer preferences and economic pressures, leading to a significant transformation from a focus on ostentation to a more refined approach to luxury.
