Full Breakdown
Hypothetical 2028 Presidential Matchup: Obama Leads Trump in Poll
1/27/2026, 10:47:26 PM
Poll Findings and Context
A recent Research Co. poll conducted from January 13-15, 2025, indicates that former President Barack Obama holds an 11-point lead over current President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup. The poll surveyed 1,002 adults and found that if both men were eligible to run, Obama would receive 44% of the vote compared to Trump's 33%. The poll also revealed demographic preferences, with Obama leading among Latino and Black voters at 57% and 69%, respectively, while Trump garnered 41% of white voters and 55% of Fox News viewers. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Constitutional Constraints
Both Obama and Trump are currently ineligible to run for president again due to the 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits any individual from being elected president more than twice. For either former president to run again, Congress would need to amend the Constitution, a process requiring a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states. Despite discussions around potential candidacies, there is no significant movement in Congress to pursue such an amendment.
Political Landscape and Reactions
The idea of Trump seeking a third term has gained traction among some of his supporters, with Trump himself hinting at the possibility on his Truth Social platform, stating, "RECORD NUMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE! SHOULD I TRY FOR A FOURTH TERM?" Conversely, former First Lady Michelle Obama expressed her opposition to her husband's potential candidacy, stating, “I hope not. I would actively work against that. I do believe that eight years is enough. And there are so many talented people out there—why would we keep going with the same people?”
Legislative Developments
In January 2025, California State Senator Tom Umberg introduced a bill aimed at ensuring Trump would be excluded from the 2028 ballot, allowing the California Secretary of State to verify candidates' eligibility. This legislative effort reflects broader concerns about the implications of a potential Trump candidacy.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics of the idea of amending the Constitution to allow former presidents to run again argue that it undermines the democratic principle of leadership turnover. Poll results show that 34% of participants support the notion of allowing a president to serve three terms, while nearly 60% oppose it, indicating a significant divide in public opinion on the matter.
What's Next
As the political landscape evolves, attention is shifting toward the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats aim to gain seats and Republicans seek to maintain their majorities in Congress. The discussions surrounding the 2028 presidential race remain speculative, with no concrete plans for constitutional amendments currently in motion.