Projected Population Decline in Europe by 2100

Recent projections from Eurostat indicate that the European Union (EU) population is expected to decline by 11.7% between 2025 and 2100, translating to a decrease from approximately 452 million to 399 million people. This decline is anticipated to result in a loss of about 53 million individuals by the start of the next century. The demographic shifts across Europe will not be uniform; while some countries are projected to experience population growth, others will face significant declines.

Latvia predicted to have EU's largest population decline this centuryLatvia Named ‘Champion of Decline’ - Population Forecast for EuropeEuronewsThe Guardian

Among the 30 European countries analyzed, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Greece are expected to see the largest population declines, exceeding 30%. Specifically, Latvia's population is projected to decrease by 33.9%, Lithuania by 33.4%, and Poland by 31.6%. Other countries, including Bulgaria (28%), Croatia (27%), Slovakia (26.7%), Romania (24.3%), Italy (24%), and Hungary (22.5%), are also expected to experience declines of over 20%. In contrast, Luxembourg (36.4%), Iceland (27.1%), and Malta (26%) are projected to see population growth of more than 25%.

EuronewsLatvia Named ‘Champion of Decline’ - Population Forecast for EuropeLatvia predicted to have EU's largest population decline this centuryThe Guardian

The variations in population changes across Europe are primarily driven by differences in migration patterns and age structures. Dr. Tomas Sobotka from the Vienna Institute of Demography notes that countries with low fertility rates and significant outmigration tend to have older populations with fewer individuals in reproductive age. Southern European nations are expected to maintain lower fertility rates, contributing to their population decline. Conversely, countries like Luxembourg and Malta, which have experienced sustained immigration, may continue to grow despite low fertility rates.

EuronewsLatvia Named ‘Champion of Decline’ - Population Forecast for EuropeLatvia predicted to have EU's largest population decline this centuryThe Guardian

Projected demographic trends will also alter the rankings of the most populous countries in Europe. Spain is expected to surpass Italy, becoming the third most populous country by 2100, with a modest population increase of 1.3%. Italy, on the other hand, is projected to lose approximately 15 million residents. Other countries, such as Switzerland, Ireland, and Norway, are expected to rise in population rankings, while Bulgaria, Portugal, and Greece will see significant declines.

EuronewsLatvia Named ‘Champion of Decline’ - Population Forecast for EuropeLatvia predicted to have EU's largest population decline this centuryThe Guardian

By 2100, it is projected that one in three Europeans will be over the age of 65, with the share of individuals aged 85 and older more than tripling from 3.2% in 2025 to 10.8%. This demographic shift raises concerns about the sustainability of social systems, as the working-age population (ages 31 to 65) is expected to shrink from 47.8% to 40.5% of the total population. The implications of these changes could strain economic resources and social services across the continent.

Latvia Named ‘Champion of Decline’ - Population Forecast for EuropeEuronewsLatvia predicted to have EU's largest population decline this centuryThe Guardian

The demographic landscape of Europe is set to undergo significant transformations by 2100, characterized by a declining and aging population in many countries. Understanding these trends is crucial for policymakers as they navigate the challenges associated with population decline and its economic ramifications.

Latvia Named ‘Champion of Decline’ - Population Forecast for Europe