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Poll: SNP Falls Short, Reform UK Rises to 21 Seats

4/24/2026

28 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

A poll from 14-21 April 2026 shows the SNP will miss a 65-seat majority in the May 7 Holyrood election, receiving 35 % constituency, 29 % list and 57 MSPs.
Reform UK is forecast at 20 % constituency, 19 % list and 21 MSPs, ahead of Scottish Labour (18 MSPs) and the Conservatives (13 MSPs).
SNP and Greens together would hold 68 seats, with 34 % of voters—including 57 % of Labour supporters—ranking Reform UK least-preferred.

History

Historical Context

The Scottish National Party (SNP) won 64 seats in the 2021 Holyrood election, reflecting a continued push for Scottish independence since the 1999 establishment of the devolved parliament. Despite securing 48% of the vote, the SNP fell short of a majority, indicating a shift in voter sentiment, particularly with the rise of Reform UK, which may challenge the SNP's independence agenda moving forward.

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Story summary

A poll from 14-21 April 2026 shows the SNP will miss a 65-seat majority in the May 7 Holyrood election, receiving 35 % constituency, 29 % list and 57 MSPs.
Reform UK is forecast at 20 % constituency, 19 % list and 21 MSPs, ahead of Scottish Labour (18 MSPs) and the Conservatives (13 MSPs).
SNP and Greens together would hold 68 seats, with 34 % of voters—including 57 % of Labour supporters—ranking Reform UK least-preferred.

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