Full Breakdown
SNP Faces Declining Support Ahead of Holyrood Election
4/24/2026, 4:18:48 AM
Current Polling Landscape
Recent polling indicates a decline in support for the Scottish National Party (SNP) just two weeks before the Holyrood election scheduled for May 7, 2024. A Survation survey conducted for Ballot Box Scotland reveals that the SNP is projected to secure 35% of the constituency vote, unchanged from previous polling, while their regional list support has dropped to 29%, a decrease of 3 percentage points. This polling suggests that the SNP could win 57 seats, down from 63 in the last election, which would fall short of the 65 seats needed for an outright majority.
Implications for Leadership
John Swinney, the SNP leader, has publicly stated that achieving a majority is crucial for advancing a second independence referendum (indyref2). However, the current projections indicate that even with the SNP and the Scottish Greens combined, they may not reach the desired majority, potentially resulting in a pro-Union government. The SNP's declining support has raised concerns about Swinney's leadership and the party's future direction.
Opposition Dynamics
The polling also highlights a competitive landscape among opposition parties. Reform UK is projected to gain 21 seats, overtaking Labour, which is expected to secure 18 seats. The Conservative Party is forecasted to win 13 seats, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats are projected to secure 11 and 9 seats, respectively. Notably, 34% of voters indicated that Reform UK would be their least preferred option for government, including a majority of Labour voters (57%).
Criticism & Opposition
Critics of the SNP, including members of the Labour Party, have expressed concerns about the party's governance over the past two decades. Labour's deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, emphasized the need for change, citing issues in healthcare and education as key factors driving voter sentiment against the SNP. Additionally, the fragmentation of the Unionist vote, with multiple parties competing for support, complicates the electoral landscape for the SNP.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While the Survation poll indicates a potential decline for the SNP, other polls, such as those conducted by More in Common, suggest varying outcomes, with some indicating that the SNP could still maintain a majority. This discrepancy highlights the uncertainty surrounding voter intentions as the election approaches.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Ballot Box Scotland’s Allan Faulds said: “This is a surprisingly poor poll for the SNP.” — Allan Faulds, Ballot Box Scotland
- “He added: "Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world.” — Analyst Commentary
What's Next
As the election date approaches, the SNP will need to address the concerns raised by voters and navigate the challenges posed by a fragmented opposition. The outcome of the election could significantly impact the future of Scottish independence discussions and the political landscape in Scotland.
