Full Breakdown
Forecasts Indicate Super El Niño by Mid-2026
4/25/2026, 3:59:22 AM
El Niño Forecast for Mid-2026
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and multiple national agencies now project that an El Niño will develop between May and July 2026. Model ensembles show rapid Pacific warming, and NOAA assigns a 61 % probability that the event will persist through the year.
ENSO Background
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle that repeats every two to seven years. The previous episode (May 2023 – March 2024) contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record.
Probability Estimates
NOAA cites a 61 % chance of El Niño, a 25 % chance of a very strong event by November, and the US Climate Prediction Center gives a 50 % chance of a strong or very strong El Niño later in the year. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society projects a 70 % chance of development by June and a 94 % chance of persistence. AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva now estimates a 15-20 % chance of a super El Niño by season’s end.
Projected Weather Impacts
Models link the developing El Niño to above-normal temperatures in North America, Central America, Caribbean, Europe and northern Africa. Impacts include wetter U.S. Midwest/Mississippi Valley, drier Gulf-Coast to East-Coast, heightened drought risk in Central Africa, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines and Brazil, reduced Atlantic hurricane activity and increased Pacific cyclones.
Official Statements
WMO Wilfran Moufouma Okia said models are aligned and El Niño will begin and intensify. The UK Met Office sees the event at the range, while NOAA’s Matthew Rosencrans warned El Niño suppresses Atlantic storms and boosts Pacific activity.
Criticism & Opposition
The barrier and lack of a definition for “super” noted. Di Liberto warned the risk is “high enough to be worried.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
NOAA cites a 61 % chance of El Niño, US CPC a 50 % chance of a strong event. WMO and UK Met Office avoid “super” label; AccuWeather and NOAA assign a 15-20 % chance of a super El Niño. No observations yet confirm the forecasts.
Verbatim Quotes
- “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” — Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO chief of climate prediction
- “There is growing confidence that this event could sit at the upper end of the historical range. Scientists are telling us that this could be the strongest El Niño event so far this century.” — UK Met Office spokesperson
- “We’re currently forecasting a 15 to 20 percent chance of a Super El Niño developing by the end of the hurricane season,” — Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert
- “El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the western Atlantic Ocean Basin,” — Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA seasonal hurricane outlook lead
What’s Next
The WMO will issue a revised El Niño update in late May, and forecasters expect clearer guidance between late May and early June as ocean-atmosphere interactions strengthen. Ongoing monitoring will determine whether the event reaches super intensity and how it shapes seasonal weather.