Story perspectives

Goldman raises Q4 Brent to $90 amid Hormuz shutdown

4/27/2026

Summary

Goldman Sachs Raises

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel, up from $80, after Strait of Hormuz closure.
Daily Persian Gulf production losses of 14.5 million barrels per day forced global inventories to draw down 11-12 million barrels per day in April, fastest on record.
Goldman Sachs warned inventories could fall to the lowest level since 2018, raising price risk and possibility of U.S. export restrictions if the Strait remains closed.

Summary

Trump Cancels Trip

President Donald Trump cancelled envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s Islamabad trip, posting criticism on Truth Social.
Trump said United States “wastes too much time traveling” and “nobody knows who is in charge” of Iran.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard boarding of two cargo ships near the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, 2026 led Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to leave Islamabad without a U.S. meeting and pushed Brent to $107.89 and U.S. crude to $96.63.

History

Historical Context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 25% of global seaborne oil—roughly 21 million barrels daily in 2018—passes, has long been a flashpoint. Iran’s July 2012 seizure of MSC Aries prompted OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to cut output 1.5 million bpd, while the 2026 near-closure cut traffic by over 90%, slashing about 10 million barrels per day and driving Brent prices sharply higher.

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Goldman Sachs Raises

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel, up from $80, after Strait of Hormuz closure.
Daily Persian Gulf production losses of 14.5 million barrels per day forced global inventories to draw down 11-12 million barrels per day in April, fastest on record.
Goldman Sachs warned inventories could fall to the lowest level since 2018, raising price risk and possibility of U.S. export restrictions if the Strait remains closed.

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