Hormuz Disruption Drives Oil Market Shock

The war that began on 27 February 2026 between the United States and Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces boarded two cargo ships on 18 April; shipping data showed only one oil-products tanker entered the Gulf. No U.S.–Iran talks were scheduled.

CNBC

By late April Brent futures hovered near $108 per barrel and WTI near $96, the sharpest weekly gains since the conflict began. Gulf output fell from 26.4 million to 11.9 million bpd, while global inventories are being drawn down at 11-12 million bpd, turning a projected 1.8 million-bpd surplus in 2025 into a 9.6 million-bpd deficit in Q2 2026.

Oil Price Forecast: Brent Near $108 as Goldman Raises 2026 Outlook on Hormuz Shock

Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 2026 Brent target to $90 per barrel (from $80) and WTI to $83, and raised 2027 forecasts to $85/$80. Goldman outlined four late-2026 Brent scenarios: base $90, adverse just over $100, severe near $120, benign just under $80. Analysts warned that “the economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, product shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of this shock.”

BenzingaGoldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts amid Hormuz crisisOil Could Hit $150 Per Barrel If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed, Citi WarnsGoldman Sachs Upgrades 5 Oil Stocks and Boosts Crude Price Target to $90Goldman Sachs raises oil forecasts to $90 Brent, $83 WTI for Q4 on Middle East supply losses, deepening 2026 deficitOil Price Forecast: Brent Near $108 as Goldman Raises 2026 Outlook on Hormuz Shock

President Donald Trump described the oil shock as a “little excursion” and said prices would fall quickly once the war ends; he also posted on Truth Social that the leadership on both sides was unclear. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said no U.S.–Iran meeting was planned.

CNBC

Citigroup raised its near-term Brent forecast to $120 and warned of a $150-plus scenario if Hormuz stays closed through June. Morgan Stanley kept its outlook at $110 for the quarter. Goldman analysts flagged a tail risk that U.S. export restrictions could be imposed if the strait remains closed, underscoring policy uncertainty.

Oil Could Hit $150 Per Barrel If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed, Citi Warns

Goldman’s $90 Brent target contrasts with Citi’s $120 and Morgan Stanley’s $110 outlook. Reopening timelines vary: Goldman sees exports by end-June, Citi and Morgan Stanley by end-May. Supply-loss estimates range from 14.2 to 14.5 million bpd.

Oil Could Hit $150 Per Barrel If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed, Citi Warns

• “Nobody knows who is in charge, including them,” — Donald Trump, President of the United States

CNBC

• “The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, product shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock,” — Goldman Sachs commodity analysts

Benzinga

• “No meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the U.S.,” — Esmaeil Baqaei, Spokesperson, Iranian Foreign Ministry

CNBC

• “Continued to fuel elevated war premiums,” — Priyanka Sachdeva, Analyst, Phillips Nova

Oil Price Forecast: Brent Near $108 as Goldman Raises 2026 Outlook on Hormuz Shock

• “While not our base case, we don’t rule out US oil export restrictions if the Strait remains effectively closed for longer,” — Goldman Sachs analysts

Benzinga

Further diplomatic dead-ends are expected as U.S. envoy visits remain cancelled. Markets will watch for any Hormuz reopening and possible U.S. export policy shifts that could quickly reshape prices and inventories.

CNBC