Story perspectives

China Suspends Rare-Earth Export Controls Through 2026

4/28/2026

Summary

China Suspends Controls

China suspended its October 2025 rare-earth export controls, including extraterritorial licensing, until 10 November 2026.
The pause keeps five rare earths restricted, bans processing-equipment transfers and applies to any product with at least 0.1 % Chinese-origin rare-earth content.
Bloomberg forecasts a 36 % global rare-earth shortfall by 2030 despite $10 billion in new public funding this year, while China still controls about 60 % of mining, 90 % of processing and 94 % of permanent-magnet manufacturing.

Summary

USA Rare Earth Merger

The $2.8 billion merger of USA Rare Earth and Lynas-linked assets creates a China-free supply chain.
China controls 98-99% of refining capacity for dysprosium and terbium, the critical bottleneck.
Each offshore wind turbine generator requires roughly 600 kilograms of rare-earth magnets, intensifying demand alongside F-35 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines.
Bloomberg Intelligence projects non-China NdPr production will expand 4.4 times by 2030, yet it will lag a 7% annual demand rise.

History

Historical Context

China’s rare-earth dominance grew after the 1990s when lax environmental rules and state subsidies boosted production to 129,000 t by 2009, prompting the United States, EU and Japan to file a WTO case in 2012. The 2014 WTO ruling declared China’s 2010 export quotas illegal, but Beijing reinstated controls in October 2025, echoing the earlier supply-security dispute.

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China Suspends Controls

China suspended its October 2025 rare-earth export controls, including extraterritorial licensing, until 10 November 2026.
The pause keeps five rare earths restricted, bans processing-equipment transfers and applies to any product with at least 0.1 % Chinese-origin rare-earth content.
Bloomberg forecasts a 36 % global rare-earth shortfall by 2030 despite $10 billion in new public funding this year, while China still controls about 60 % of mining, 90 % of processing and 94 % of permanent-magnet manufacturing.

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