China’s Rare Earth Export Controls Near Expiration: Global Supply at a Crossroads

China’s 12-month suspension of broad rare-earth export controls, begun in October 2025, ends on 10 November 2026. The pause left the licensing system intact but inactive. The April 2025 regime still requires case-by-case licences for seven heavy rare-earths—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.

China’s 90% Rare Earth Grip Is on Pause. In 6 Months, the World Finds Out If It Built a Backup

China controls 60 % of rare-earth mining, 90 % of processing and 94 % of permanent-magnet manufacturing. The October 2025 package added five elements to the restricted list, banned processing-equipment exports and extended extraterritorial jurisdiction to products with >=0.1 % Chinese-origin material. Those provisions were suspended for a year, while April 2025 licensing stayed active.

China’s 90% Rare Earth Grip Is on Pause. In 6 Months, the World Finds Out If It Built a Backup

Bloomberg Intelligence projects a 36 % global NdPr shortfall by 2030, even with $10 billion in public funding. Production outside China could rise 4.4-fold, but demand—up 7 % annually—outpaces supply. The bottleneck centers on dysprosium and terbium, where China holds 98-99 % of refining capacity and Western supply sits at 1-2 %. Every F-35 jet, EV motor (1-2 kg NdPr) and offshore wind turbine (?600 kg magnets) depend on these materials; during the October 2025 window Suzuki halted production and several European parts plants shut down.

China’s 90% Rare Earth Grip Is on Pause. In 6 Months, the World Finds Out If It Built a Backup

China’s Ministry of Commerce continues case-by-case licences for seven heavy rare-earths under the April 2025 regime. The broader extraterritorial licensing and equipment-transfer bans stay suspended, but the licensing system remains. Beijing could reimpose dysprosium and terbium licences within 30 days or fully reinstate October 2025 controls, triggering price spikes and shutdowns across defense, automotive and clean-energy supply chains. With the November 10 deadline 197 days away, the decision will shape strategic leverage for NATO, EV makers and wind-farm developers worldwide.

China’s 90% Rare Earth Grip Is on Pause. In 6 Months, the World Finds Out If It Built a Backup

CSIS warns no single country can match China’s financial capacity. U.S. firms report difficulty accessing dysprosium and terbium. Rare Earth Exchanges says the “rare-earth shortage” narrative hides a dysprosium/terbium bottleneck, noting MP Materials, Lynas and USA Rare Earth’s $2.8 billion merger are years from feedstock.

The Rare Earth Story Everyone Is Getting Wrong

Bloomberg and CSIS cite a 36 % NdPr shortfall, while Rare Earth Exchanges emphasizes the heavy-rare-earth bottleneck, leaving the exact deficit and timing of renewed Chinese licensing uncertain.

China’s 90% Rare Earth Grip Is on Pause. In 6 Months, the World Finds Out If It Built a Backup

“No single country currently possesses the financial resources or technical capabilities to independently outpace China’s dominance.” — CSIS analysis

China’s 90% Rare Earth Grip Is on Pause. In 6 Months, the World Finds Out If It Built a Backup

“The world doesn’t face a rare earth shortage—it faces a dysprosium and terbium bottleneck, with China controlling 98-99% of refining capacity while Western supply chains remain fragile and unproven at scale.” — Rare Earth Exchanges

The Rare Earth Story Everyone Is Getting Wrong

“Bloomberg Intelligence projects a 36% global shortfall of NdPr (the rare earth pair used in defense, EV, and wind turbine magnets) by 2030, even with $10 billion in public funding expected in 2026.” — Bloomberg Intelligence

China’s 90% Rare Earth Grip Is on Pause. In 6 Months, the World Finds Out If It Built a Backup