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Citi, Goldman Raise Brent Forecasts After Hormuz Blockage

4/28/2026

40 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Citi Raises Brent

Citigroup raised its Brent target to $120 per barrel after Iran’s Hormuz closure.
Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel, $30 above pre-crisis levels.
The blockage cut Persian Gulf crude shipments, erasing about 500 million barrels and lowering inventories by 11-12 million barrels per day.
Citi’s bull case gives a 30 % chance Brent will reach $150 per barrel if the strait stays closed through June.

Summary

Goldman Forecasts Deficit

Goldman Sachs analysts say the oil market is simultaneously closed to traffic yet not fully shut, leaving it poised for an abrupt reopening.
They forecast a daily deficit of 9.6 million barrels this quarter, reversing last year’s comparable surplus.
Morgan Stanley reports Persian Gulf exports fell by 14.2 million barrels per day because of the Hormuz closure, cutting global stockpiles by about 4.8 million barrels each day.

Summary

Iran Reopens Hormuz

Iran announced on Monday it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States lifts its blockade and the war ends, postponing nuclear talks.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed the offer, saying reopening would need U.S. permission and could be met with force.
Goldman Sachs warned Brent could near $120 a barrel if the Middle East conflict continues, and analysts pushed the expected Gulf oil-export recovery to end-June.

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Citi Raises Brent

Citigroup raised its Brent target to $120 per barrel after Iran’s Hormuz closure.
Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel, $30 above pre-crisis levels.
The blockage cut Persian Gulf crude shipments, erasing about 500 million barrels and lowering inventories by 11-12 million barrels per day.
Citi’s bull case gives a 30 % chance Brent will reach $150 per barrel if the strait stays closed through June.

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