Strait of Hormuz Closure Spurs Record Oil Drawdowns and Sharp Upward Revisions in Brent Price Forecasts

Shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz forced inventories to fall at 11-12 million barrels per day in April. Analysts cite a loss of 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude, creating a 9.6 million-barrel-per-day supply deficit and prompting Brent revisions.

Bloomberg

Late-February hostilities led Iran to seal the Hormuz waterway, cutting Persian Gulf crude transits to near zero and eliminating 500 million barrels of supply, heightening risk.

Bloomberg

Loss ~500 million barrels, 1.3 billion if closed through May; inventory draw of 11-12 million barrels per day in April, driven by 14.5 million-barrel-per-day loss. Outlook: Goldman $90 /barrel in Q4 (up from $80), $100 /barrel this quarter, $93 in Q3; Citigroup $120 /barrel, $150 /barrel in a 30 % bull case; Morgan Stanley $110 /barrel this quarter, $100 in Q3, $90 in Q4.

Oil Could Hit $150 Per Barrel If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed, Citi Warns

Goldman analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said the “Hormuz shock” caused inventory draws and that Gulf exports may only normalize by end-June. Citigroup warned Iran’s motive to keep the strait closed would accelerate inventory depletion and lift prices. Morgan Stanley, noting a 14.2 million-barrel-per-day Gulf slump, kept its Brent forecasts unchanged, citing uncertainty over reopening.

Bloomberg

Secretary Marco Rubio dismissed Iran’s offer to reopen the strait, calling conditional access “coordination with Iran…or we’ll blow you up and you pay us,” not genuine access. Goldman and Citigroup differ sharply in Brent targets—$90 versus $120 per barrel—reflecting divergent views on blockade duration and Gulf recovery. Morgan Stanley’s unchanged outlook adds contrast, while its 4.8 million-barrel-per-day stockpile drop estimate contrasts with Goldman’s 11-12 million-barrel-per-day draw, highlighting inventory gaps.

$150 Oil? Citi Says It’s Possible If the Strait of Hormuz Stays Shut

Goldman cites an 11-12 million-barrel-per-day draw, while Morgan Stanley reports a 4.8 million-barrel-per-day stockpile drop, indicating uncertainty in the exact magnitude.

Oil Could Hit $150 Per Barrel If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed, Citi Warns

• “We estimate that 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11 to 12 million barrel-a-day pace in April,” — Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, Goldman Sachs

Bloomberg

• “Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market has mostly existed in two states at once: closed to most traffic, but not entirely; expected to be opened at any moment, but little change so far,” — Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs

Bloomberg

• “The shock is large, the data is incomplete, and the recovery is conditional,” — Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs

Bloomberg

• “What they mean by opening the straits is, 'Yes, the straits are open, as long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we'll blow you up and you pay us,'” — Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State

Newsmax (website)

Analysts anticipate a possible reopening by the end of May, but any further delay could keep Brent prices elevated and global inventories near decade-low levels.

Oil Could Hit $150 Per Barrel If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed, Citi Warns