Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Poll Shows Democrat James Talarico Narrowly Ahead of GOP Contenders
4/28/2026, 9:00:51 PM
Core Findings of the TPOR Poll
A Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey conducted April 17-20 asked likely general-election voters about hypothetical match-ups. In the larger sample of 1,865 voters (margin of error 2.5 points) and the smaller sample of 1,018 voters (±3.3 points), Democratic Rep. James Talarico leads incumbent Sen. John Cornyn 44 %-41 % and Attorney General Ken Paxton 46 %-41 %. Undecided voters total 11 % against Cornyn and 9 % against Paxton. Among independents, Talarico leads 51 %-29 % over Cornyn and 53 %-28 % over Paxton; moderate voters favor him by over 40 points. Talarico has out-raised both Republicans; Cornyn’s campaign and affiliated PAC have raised over $6.5 million, while Paxton’s campaign and PAC have raised more than $1.9 million.
Background: Texas Senate Race and Upcoming Runoff
James Talarico won the Democratic primary in early March. The Republican primary produced no majority winner, sending incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton to a runoff on May 26. Early voting runs May 18-22; the runoff victor will meet Talarico in the November 2026 general election.
Demographic and Favorability Breakdown
The poll shows Talarico strongest among Black voters (lead of 51 points over Cornyn, 56 points over Paxton), Latino voters (lead of 32 points over Cornyn, 27 points over Paxton), college-educated Texans and independents. Independents favor him 51 %-29 % against Cornyn and 53 %-28 % against Paxton. Favorability ratings list Talarico at 41 % favorable, 34 % unfavorable; Cornyn and Paxton trail by 15 and 10 points respectively, the lowest among respondents. Republican candidates draw most support from white, non-college-educated, rural voters.
Official Perspectives and Party Positions
Cornyn and his supporters argue the veteran senator would be a stronger general-election candidate than Paxton in a cycle expected to be tough for Republicans. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as “likely Republican.” TPOR notes little variance between Cornyn and Paxton in hypothetical match-ups.
Criticism and Historical Skepticism
No Democrat has won a statewide Texas race since 1994, and analysts caution that recent polls have sometimes overstated Democratic prospects. Democrats cite President Donald Trump’s declining approval and Latino voter backlash over the economy and immigration, but historical patterns advise caution.
Conflicting Poll Methodologies
The Hill reports a sample of 1,865 likely voters with a 2.5 percent margin of error; Texas Tribune and USA Today cite a sample of 1,018 likely voters and a ±3.3 percent error range. Both present identical lead margins, but the differing sample sizes and error calculations constitute a reporting discrepancy.
Implications for the 2026 Election
The narrow leads, demographic strengths and fundraising gaps make the race competitive and likely to shape national party strategies. Republican primary dynamics, including Paxton’s eight-point runoff lead over Cornyn, may affect the general-election matchup.
Upcoming Electoral Milestones
The Republican runoff is scheduled for May 26, with early voting May 18-22; the winner will face Talarico in the November 2026 general election, completing the final stage of the Senate contest.
