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Study Discredits 60-90% Trans Desistance Claim, Undermines Ban Justifications

4/30/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Researchers led by Catherine Wall published a study showing the 60-90% trans-desistance figure lacks scientific merit.
The figure, traced to an informal blog post, can be manipulated to any rate and is based on small pre-1990 studies, some conversion-therapy experiments.
The inflated rate has been used to pressure trans youth into hiding and to justify gender-affirming care bans, such as the Tennessee ban upheld in U.S. v. Skrmetti.

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Story summary

Researchers led by Catherine Wall published a study showing the 60-90% trans-desistance figure lacks scientific merit.
The figure, traced to an informal blog post, can be manipulated to any rate and is based on small pre-1990 studies, some conversion-therapy experiments.
The inflated rate has been used to pressure trans youth into hiding and to justify gender-affirming care bans, such as the Tennessee ban upheld in U.S. v. Skrmetti.