Full Breakdown
VCU Study Discredits Widely Cited Trans-Youth Desistance Rate
4/30/2026, 2:26:23 AM
Background & Context
The 60-90 % desistance figure used by anti-trans advocates originates from a 2021 blog post by Dr. James M. Cantor, who summarized eleven earlier studies—most published before 1990 and focused on effeminate behavior in boys rather than self-identified transgender identity.
Core Findings and Key Researchers
Virginia Commonwealth University researchers, led by Catherine Wall, Ph.D., re-examined the eleven original studies and added five post-2016 studies. They found methodological flaws and small, non-representative samples that allowed statistical manipulation to produce desistance estimates anywhere from 0 % to 100 %, showing the original claim lacks empirical support.
Data & Statistics
Seven of the eleven original studies were published before 1990, with three examining only effeminate behavior. Sample sizes were limited, and participants who withdrew were automatically classified as desisted. Post-2016 studies used stricter protocols and reported higher persistence of transgender identities.
Policy Impact
The 60-90 % statistic has been cited in debates and in the U.S. v. Skrmetti Supreme Court case that upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming treatment for minors. Lawmakers in at least 26 states have referenced the figure when drafting restrictions, and critics say it fuels stigma and deters families from seeking care.
Criticism of Early Research Methods
VCU investigators noted that several early studies were designed to discourage transgender identification, including one that removed children from their families for six months. Classifying study dropouts as “desisted” further inflated reversal rates.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The widely cited 60-90 % desistance rate conflicts with VCU’s finding of methodological unreliability. No longitudinal studies track self-identified transgender individuals from childhood into adulthood, and there is no consensus on how “desistance” is defined across research.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We were particularly interested in examining this idea of the concept of trans identity desistance because it’s a number that has been bandied about for years as if it’s 100% accurate,” — Catherine Wall, Ph.D., Lead Author
- “A lot of those early frameworks were explicitly intending to stop people from expressing their gender identity. It’s this idea of transgender identity as a state of disordered being.” — Catherine Wall, Ph.D.
- “Understanding the context in which research is done is incredibly important to understanding the results,” — Catherine Wall, Ph.D.
- “Just because a number exists does not mean it’s correct, and does not mean it’s 100% accurate. We should not be making legislation based off a number that might range from 0% to 100%.” — Catherine Wall, Ph.D.
What’s Next
The VCU findings may be cited in future legal challenges to gender-affirming care bans. Researchers call for larger, longitudinal studies that track transgender identities over time to replace the discredited statistic with evidence-based data.
