Story perspectives

Indonesia Logs $3.3 B March Surplus, China Deficit Balances U.S.

5/5/2026

Summary

Indonesia Trade Surplus

Indonesia's Statistics Agency reported a $3.32 billion trade surplus in March 2026, extending a 71-month streak.
Exports $22.53 billion and imports $19.21 billion left a $5.21 billion non-oil surplus and a $1.89 billion oil-gas deficit.
The United States contributed $4.43 billion, offset by China’s $5.18 billion deficit.
Imports rose 1.51 % YoY, driven by a 24.02 % jump in capital goods to $12.98 billion.
China supplied 41.56 % of non-oil imports, the top source, totaling $22.02 billion in Q1 2026.

Summary

Bank Indonesia Holds

Bank Indonesia will keep its policy rate at 4.75 % through 2027.
April’s annual inflation fell to 2.42 % from 3.48 % in March.
The rupiah hit a record low of 17,385 per dollar in the week of 27 April.
Fuel-subsidy spending rose to protect consumers from oil-price spikes linked to the Iran war, prompting analysts to warn that higher fuel imports may narrow the surplus.

History

Historical Context

Indonesia’s 1997 Asian-financial crisis saw the rupiah plunge from about Rp2,600 per dollar in August to over Rp14,800 by January 1998, prompting a $43 billion IMF rescue and the resignation of President Suharto. The same vulnerabilities reappear today as the rupiah again nears a record low of 17,385 per dollar while Bank Indonesia holds rates at 4.75 % to sustain a $3.32 billion trade surplus.

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Indonesia Trade Surplus

Indonesia's Statistics Agency reported a $3.32 billion trade surplus in March 2026, extending a 71-month streak.
Exports $22.53 billion and imports $19.21 billion left a $5.21 billion non-oil surplus and a $1.89 billion oil-gas deficit.
The United States contributed $4.43 billion, offset by China’s $5.18 billion deficit.
Imports rose 1.51 % YoY, driven by a 24.02 % jump in capital goods to $12.98 billion.
China supplied 41.56 % of non-oil imports, the top source, totaling $22.02 billion in Q1 2026.

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