Indonesia’s March 2026 Trade Surplus Expands Amid Export Decline and Rising Chinese Imports

Indonesia posted a $3.32 billion trade surplus in March 2026, its 71st consecutive month since May 2020, exceeding the Reuters median forecast of $2.41 billion and more than double February’s $1.28 billion surplus.

Jakarta Globe

Exports fell 3.1 % to $22.53 billion, hit by weaker mining shipments and a 44.14 % plunge in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, with coffee, tea and spices down 54.69 %. A $5.21 billion non-oil surplus was offset by a $1.89 billion oil deficit.

Indonesia Extends Historic Trade Surplus Streak to 71 Months Despite Slumping Agri-Exports

Imports rose 1.51 % to $19.21 billion; capital goods up 4.98 % and imports 12.16 % to $52.97 billion. China supplied 41.56 % of these, creating a $5.2 billion bilateral deficit and providing 34.79 % of $2.55 billion plastic imports.

Indonesia March Trade Surplus Holds, China Imports Surge Q1

The rupiah fell to 17,385 per dollar amid Iran-related tensions. April inflation eased to 2.42 % (core 2.44 %). Government expanded subsidies, and Bank Indonesia kept its 1.5-3.5 % inflation target to 2027, signalling a 4.75 % rate if subsidies persist.

Indonesia’s March trade surplus expands to US$3.32 billion; April inflation eases to 2.42%

Bank Indonesia kept 1.5-3.5 % inflation target and said 4.75 % rate will stay if subsidies continue. Gunarto warned fuel imports could narrow surplus, and Rachman flagged Middle-East tensions as a risk to trade and import costs.

Reuters

Analysts caution that heavy reliance on Chinese intermediate goods limits domestic value-addition and heightens exposure to external shocks. A surge in fuel imports and a weaker rupiah could compress margins and erode the trade surplus.

Reuters

Sources differ on the China-related deficit ($5.18 bn or $5.52 bn), capital-goods growth (4.98 % YoY in March vs 24.02 % in Q1) and import growth (1.51 % in March vs 10.05 % for the quarter).

Indonesia March Trade Surplus Holds, China Imports Surge Q1

• “Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose additional downside risks by weakening global trade flows and external demand, while also raising fuel prices and, in turn, increasing import costs,” — Faisal Rachman, Bank Permata economist

Indonesia’s March trade surplus expands to US$3.32 billion; April inflation eases to 2.42%

• “Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a $3.32 billion surplus in March 2026. The country has now maintained a trade surplus for 71 consecutive months since May 2020,” — Ateng Hartono, BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics

Jakarta Globe

• “We see the possibility that Indonesia’s trade surplus could narrow, because there is a surge in fuel imports as oil prices have risen sharply.” — Myrdal Gunarto, Maybank Indonesia economist

Indonesia’s March trade surplus expands to US$3.32 billion; April inflation eases to 2.42%

• “5 per cent target range until 2027 due to subsidies and a joint effort with government officials to control food prices.” — Bank Indonesia

Channel News Asia - CNA

Analysts expect April imports to rise if fuel prices stay high, which could narrow the surplus. Maintaining subsidies and a steady 4.75 % rate will be crucial for inflation, while Chinese import dependence remains a policy focus.

Reuters