Full Breakdown
Republican Surge in Early California Primary Ballots Raises Questions
5/13/2026, 11:45:02 PM
Background & Context
California’s “jungle” primary places all candidates on a single ballot, ignoring party affiliation, and leads to a November runoff. Early mail-ballot returns for the June 2026 primary were reported on May 12, 2026. The contest includes the governor’s race and four other statewide races, including lieutenant governor, insurance commissioner, superintendent of public instruction, with a runoff for each.
Data & Statistics
Research firm PDI recorded that Republican early returns stand at 34 %, an 8-point rise from the same stage of the 2022 midterms. Democratic early returns fell to 41 %, down 7 points, while independents rose 2 %.
Official Statements & Responses
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio said the numbers show Democrats “way down and Republicans … up in early voting,” implying a possible delay among Democratic voters. PDI vice-president of political data Paul Mitchell called the findings “anecdotal” but noted a hesitant Democratic electorate and a solid Republican base behind a Trump-endorsed candidate. No comment was obtained from Governor Gavin Newsom.
Criticism & Opposition
DeMaio cautioned that early returns are “far from conclusive,” warning Republicans could be shut out of the governor’s race and four other statewide contests. Mitchell highlighted the lack of “obvious consolidation” on the Democratic side, describing the field as “fractured.” The recent withdrawal of former congressman Eric Swalwell after multiple assault allegations may have further unsettled Democratic voters.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The data cover only the initial mail-ballot wave, and analysts note it may not predict final outcomes. Mitchell suggested Democrats may be “holding on to their ballots” pending a decisive endorsement, yet Governor Newsom has not publicly endorsed any candidate. Whether the early Republican lead will translate into a runoff victory remains unverified.
Why It Matters & What’s Next
If the early Republican surge persists, it could reshape California’s deep-blue political landscape and affect policy overseen by the lieutenant governor, insurance commissioner, and superintendent of public instruction. The June primary will decide which candidates advance to the November runoff; the race may hinge on a potential Newsom endorsement and turnout among undecided Democrats.
Verbatim Quotes
- “When you take a look at the numbers, both in comparison to the numbers four years ago and voter registration, Democrats are way down and Republicans are up in early voting,” — Carl DeMaio, Assemblymember
- “It may mean that many Democrats are taking longer to decide on the governor’s race and who ultimately they want to lead.” — Carl DeMaio, Assemblymember
- “Paul Mitchell, vice president of political data at PDI, told The Post that the findings are still “anecdotal,” but the data points to two potential trends.” — Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data, PDI
- “Some Democrats may be holding on to their ballots because they’re still unsure of this governor’s race, and waiting to see if something breaks the door open like Gov. Gavin Newsom endorsing (a candidate),” — Paul Mitchell, PDI
