Full Breakdown
California Governor’s Race Tightens as Hilton and Becerra Lead Final Poll
5/20/2026, 5:12:51 AM
Final Poll Snapshot
The EVITARUS poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party surveyed 1,200 voters May 14-16 (±2.83 % margin). It shows Republican Steve Hilton at 22 % and Democrat Xavier Becerra at 21 %; Tom Steyer 15 %, Chad Bianco 10 %, Katie Porter 7 %, Matt Mahan 4 %, Antonio Villaraigosa and Tony Thurmond each 1 %; 13 % undecided.
Background & Context
California’s top-two primary lists all candidates on one ballot; the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party. Early March EVITARUS tracking showed Republicans Hilton and Bianco ahead. Eric Swalwell’s April exit lifted Becerra from 4 % to 21 % by mid-May. Ballots have been mailed to 23.1 million voters and early-voting sites opened earlier this month. Sixty-one candidates, including 51 with negligible support, appear on the ballot.
Official Statements & Responses
Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks said we are “moving closer to electing a Democrat.” Becerra told reporters voters are “looking closely at who’s out there” and that Steyer’s spending “hasn’t made a difference.” Hilton posted the poll “confirms I am the ONLY change candidate who can make it into the top 2.” GOP consultant Mike Madrid forecast a “Becerra vs Hilton general election.” Sheriff Chad Bianco argued a “1-on-1 with Steve ensures a Democrat win in November.”
Criticism & Opposition
Steyer’s ads accuse Becerra of taking Chevron money and of a campaign-manager indictment. Becerra’s controversial HHS tenure, including COVID-19 response issues and a scandal involving aide Sean McCluskie, is highlighted. Bianco rebuked Hilton’s Trump endorsement and urged his withdrawal to protect Republicans.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polymarket odds give Becerra a 52 % win probability and Hilton 9 %, starkly different from the poll’s 22 %/21 % shares. No polling data exist for the 51 lower-profile candidates, leaving their influence uncertain. Some outlets note criticisms of Becerra not mentioned elsewhere.
Why It Matters
If Hilton and Becerra finish top-two, the November ballot will pit a Republican against a Democrat; a two-Democrat finish would shut Republicans out of the governorship. The poll is the final tracking survey before the June 2 primary, and early-voting trends will shape the ballot order.
Verbatim Quotes
- “In recent months, I have stated that California Democrats would do whatever was required to ensure that we elect a Democrat as our next governor,” — Rusty Hicks, Chair, California Democratic Party
- “They’re really looking closely at who’s out there, and I think I’ve been one of the beneficiaries of folks looking for a place that they can feel comfortable, where they can trust,” — Xavier Becerra, Candidate
- “LATEST POLL confirms that Steve Hilton is the ONLY change candidate who can make it into the top 2,” — Steve Hilton, Instagram post
- “Very likely we are going to see a Becerra vs Hilton general [election],” — Mike Madrid, GOP consultant
