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NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricanes Amid Strengthening El Niño

5/22/2026

Summary

Story summary

NOAA released a May 21 forecast that a strengthening El Niño will cause a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
The agency projects 8-14 named storms, with 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes.
NOAA gave a 55 % chance of below-normal activity, 35 % near-normal and 10 % above-normal, with 70 % confidence in the storm count.
The outlook cited AI-driven models, drone data and a high-resolution seasonal system, noting an updated forecast in early August.

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Story summary

NOAA released a May 21 forecast that a strengthening El Niño will cause a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
The agency projects 8-14 named storms, with 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes.
NOAA gave a 55 % chance of below-normal activity, 35 % near-normal and 10 % above-normal, with 70 % confidence in the storm count.
The outlook cited AI-driven models, drone data and a high-resolution seasonal system, noting an updated forecast in early August.