Full Breakdown
NOAA Forecasts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid Anticipated El Niño
5/22/2026, 1:17:02 AM
Season Outlook and Expected Activity
NOAA’s June 1–Nov 30 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicts a 55 % chance of below-average activity, a 35 % chance of near-normal activity, and a 10 % chance of above-average activity. The agency expects 8–14 named storms, of which 3–6 will become hurricanes and 1–3 will reach major (Category 3+) intensity. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. NOAA assigns a 70 % confidence level to these ranges.
Key Drivers: El Niño and Ocean Conditions
The forecast centers on the anticipated development of a strong, possibly “super,” El Niño. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center projects an >80 % probability that El Niño will be present by July and a >90 % chance it will persist through the winter. El Niño typically raises upper-level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, inhibiting storm organization. Concurrently, Atlantic sea-surface temperatures remain slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are expected to be weaker than average—factors that could modestly offset El Niño’s suppressive influence.
Quantitative Forecast Details
- Named storms: 8–14 (winds >= 39 mph)
- Hurricanes: 3–6 (winds >= 74 mph)
- Major hurricanes: 1–3 (winds >= 111 mph)
- Confidence: 70 % in the above ranges
- Historical baseline (1991-2020): 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes
Implications for Coastal Communities
Even a below-average season can produce hazardous impacts. NOAA emphasizes that a single storm making landfall can cause severe damage, especially in the Gulf Coast, Atlantic seaboard, and the Hawaiian Islands. Preparedness measures—including updated evacuation plans and reinforced building codes—remain essential regardless of the overall forecast.
Official Statements from NOAA and U.S. Officials
- NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs noted that “even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one.”
- National Weather Service Director Ken Graham highlighted the uncertainty inherent in seasonal forecasts, stating that “although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold.”
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick affirmed that NOAA and the National Weather Service are “prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings” using advanced modeling and tracking technologies.
Scientific Concerns and Uncertainties
Several experts caution that El Niño’s suppressive effect is not guaranteed in a warming climate. CNN reported that “extremely warm ocean temperatures acted like rocket fuel during the 2023 season, allowing storms to develop despite El Niño’s increased wind shear.” The same source warned that “that’s not guaranteed anymore in a world warming due to fossil-fuel pollution.” These observations underscore the possibility that above-average sea-surface temperatures could partially counteract El Niño-driven shear.
Other Forecasts and Discrepancies
Colorado State University (CSU) projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes—higher than NOAA’s central range. Other private forecasters similarly anticipate a dozen named storms. The divergence reflects differing weighting of ocean-temperature anomalies and El Niño strength in the respective models.
Verbatim Quotes
- “With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” — Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary
- “NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” — Neil Jacobs, NOAA Administrator
- “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” — Ken Graham, National Weather Service Director
- “Even though we're expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it's very important to understand that it only takes one,” — Neil Jacobs, NOAA Administrator
- “NOAA, the FOX Forecast Center and FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross all cautioned that it only takes one storm to cause major impacts.” — Bryan Norcross, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist
- “Typically, El Niño leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic,” — Andy Hazelton, University of Miami associate scientist
Upcoming Updates and Monitoring
NOAA will issue an updated outlook in early August, ahead of the historical peak (mid-August to mid-October). The Climate Prediction Center will continue to monitor El Niño intensity, while the National Hurricane Center will provide weekly tropical-cyclone outlooks throughout the season. Stakeholders are advised to follow NOAA’s official channels for the latest guidance.
