Story perspectives

NOAA Forecasts Record El Niño, Up to 14 Storms

5/22/2026

Summary

Story summary

NOAA expects a strong El Niño that could rank among the most intense on record.
NOAA projects 8-14 named storms, three-six hurricanes and one-three major Category 3+ storms.
NOAA warned that even a below-average season can produce a catastrophic storm.
NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs and NWS director Ken Graham urged residents to prepare, noting AI-driven models, hurricane-hunter aircraft, flood maps and the $9 billion damage and 95 deaths from Hurricane Melissa.

History

Historical Context

After Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, causing $27.3 billion in damage and prompting FEMA’s $1.2 billion mitigation program, the United States tightened building codes and expanded radar coverage. Decades of coastal growth have nearly doubled $1 billion-damage storms since the 1980s. Today NOAA’s Neil Jacobs and NWS chief Ken Graham warn that a strong El Niño could test those modern safeguards.

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Story summary

NOAA expects a strong El Niño that could rank among the most intense on record.
NOAA projects 8-14 named storms, three-six hurricanes and one-three major Category 3+ storms.
NOAA warned that even a below-average season can produce a catastrophic storm.
NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs and NWS director Ken Graham urged residents to prepare, noting AI-driven models, hurricane-hunter aircraft, flood maps and the $9 billion damage and 95 deaths from Hurricane Melissa.

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