Full Breakdown
NOAA Forecast Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
5/22/2026, 4:53:55 AM
Core Forecast: Below-Normal Season Expected
On 21 May 2026 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its first outlook for the Atlantic basin. The agency assigned a 55 % chance of a below-normal season, a 35 % chance of near-normal activity, and a 10 % chance of an above-normal season. The forecast calls for 8–14 named storms, of which 3–6 are expected to become hurricanes and 1–3 to reach major (Category 3-5) intensity. An average season (1991-2020) produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
El Niño’s Role in Suppressing Atlantic Activity
Forecasters cite a developing El Niño in the central-eastern Pacific as the primary suppressing factor. El Niño typically strengthens upper-level winds (vertical wind shear) over the Atlantic Main Development Region, tearing apart nascent tropical disturbances. The Climate Prediction Center estimates an 82 % chance that El Niño will be present by summer, while NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs noted a 98 % likelihood of El Niño conditions later this season and an 80 % chance it will be moderate to strong.
Projected Storm Counts and Probabilities
- Named storms: 8 – 14 (55 % below-normal probability)
- Hurricanes: 3 – 6
- Major hurricanes: 1 – 3
- El Niño development: 61 %–98 % chance (varies by source)
- Pacific activity: NOAA predicts a 70 % chance of an above-normal season in the eastern Pacific, with 15-22 named storms expected there.
NOAA’s Official Position
NOAA emphasizes that the outlook reflects large-scale climate patterns, not specific landfall forecasts. The agency urges residents to review preparedness plans now, noting that a single storm can cause severe impacts regardless of seasonal totals. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Director Ken Graham highlighted the uncertainty inherent in seasonal forecasts and the need for early readiness.
Scientific Perspectives and Uncertainties
Atmospheric scientists note competing influences. University at Albany researchers Kristen Corbosiero and Brian Tang explain that warmer Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and weaker trade winds could partially offset El Niño-induced shear, allowing some storms to develop and intensify. NOAA lead forecaster Matthew Rosencrans adds that once a system reaches hurricane strength, it becomes less vulnerable to shear. These nuances underscore the forecast’s probabilistic nature.
Conflicting Probabilities and Forecast Gaps
Sources differ on El Niño likelihood: Fox Carolina cites a 61 % chance, the Climate Prediction Center a 82 % chance, and Jacobs a 98 % chance. Forecast numbers also vary: Colorado State University (CSU) projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; AccuWeather forecasts 11-16 named storms. None of the outlooks provide landfall probabilities, and the timing of the first tropical storm (typically around 20 June) remains uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” — Ken Graham, NOAA NWS Director
- “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.” — Ken Graham
- “Don't let the 'below-average' forecast change your preparations,” — Ken Graham
- “Even though we’re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” — Neil Jacobs, NOAA Administrator
- “El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.” — NOAA forecasters
What’s Next
NOAA will issue updated outlooks on 10 June, 8 July and 5 August, incorporating new oceanic and atmospheric data. The agency also plans to expand AI-driven modeling, high-resolution flood mapping and experimental forecast cones to improve intensity and impact guidance throughout the season. Residents are advised to stay informed via official channels and maintain preparedness measures well before the June 1 start date.
