James Talarico Leads Early Polls Against Ken Paxton in 2026 Texas Senate Race

RealClearPolitics' average of surveys from January to early May puts Democrat James Talarico at 44.3 % and Republican Ken Paxton at 42.8 %, a 1.5-point lead. Individual polls range from a statistical tie to an eight-point Talarico edge, with one poll showing Paxton +2.

Newsweek

In 2018, Democrat Beto O'Rourke lost to Republican Ted Cruz by 2.6 points (Cruz 50.9 % to O'Rourke 48.3 %). Early May polls then showed Cruz ahead by 7 and 11 points, before O'Rourke narrowed the gap to about two points.

Newsweek

James Talarico – Democratic Texas House member who secured the Democratic nomination in March, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett; Ken Paxton – Republican Attorney General who secured the GOP nomination in a primary runoff on Tuesday; Beto O'Rourke – 2018 Democratic benchmark; Ted Cruz – 2018 Republican incumbent; Larry Sabato – political scientist; The Cook Political Report – election-rating group; RealClearPolitics – poll aggregator; Civiqs – opinion tracker.

Newsweek

Talarico leads Paxton 44.3 %–42.8 % in the RealClearPolitics average; polls vary from a tie to an eight-point Talarico lead, with one showing Paxton +2. O'Rourke’s 2018 result was 48.3 % to Cruz’s 50.9 %; early 2018 polls recorded Cruz +7 and +11 points. Trump’s net approval in Texas is –18.5 now versus –8.9 in 2018.

Newsweek

President Trump’s approval in Texas has moved from an even split in 2018 to a double-digit disapproval advantage, making the 2026 Senate race a potential referendum on the president. A less favorable national backdrop for Republicans could aid Talarico, while Paxton’s polarizing profile may affect GOP cohesion.

Newsweek

The Cook Political Report now rates the race as Lean Republican, reflecting Texas’s historic GOP advantage. Larry Sabato says Talarico’s standing is “on a par with Beto O’Rourke,” but cautions that a Democratic win remains uncertain.

Newsweek

Analysts warn early polls can shift dramatically, citing O'Rourke’s 2018 surge that fell short. Some argue Paxton’s divisive primary may weaken GOP unity, while others maintain Texas’s structural Republican lean remains decisive.

Newsweek

While the RealClearPolitics average favors Talarico, at least one poll shows Paxton ahead by two points, indicating variability in the data set. Analysts note it remains unclear how Trump’s low approval will translate into vote choice in Texas, leaving a key uncertainty about the race’s trajectory.

Newsweek

"I’m far from fully convinced that Talarico can win but he’s got a better chance than any Democrat since the 1990s. He’s on a par with Beto O’Rourke." — Larry Sabato, Political Scientist, University of Virginia

Newsweek

The general election is set for November 2026. Ongoing polling will track voter sentiment, and the Cook Political Report may adjust its rating if the race tightens. Campaign fundraising, ground operations, and turnout efforts will shape the final result.

Newsweek