Social Security and Medicare Face Solvency Deadlines as Lawmakers Debate Reform

The 2026 Medicare Board of Trustees says the Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund will run out of full Part A funding after Q2 2033, paying only 89 cents per dollar. The Social Security Trustees project the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund can meet 100 percent of benefits until Q4 2032, then about 78 percent. A combined OASDI outlook pushes total reserve exhaustion to the end of 2034.

HealthCareDive

Project 2025, a Republican blueprint, proposes raising the retirement age to 69-70, defaulting enrollees to Medicare Advantage, and cutting disability benefits. The 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” lowered the payroll-tax cap on earnings subject to Social Security taxes, shrinking trust-fund revenue.

HealthCareDive

Medicare spent $1.2 trillion in 2025 and is projected to cost $19 trillion. Part B outpatient spending was $584 billion in 2025, surpassing Part A’s $444 billion. Medicare Advantage enrollment rose from 34 % in 2017 to 51 % in 2026, adding about $76 billion in excess payments annually. Part D drug costs are climbing.

Georgetown University

House Speaker Mike Johnson told a conservative radio host that mandatory spending “has to be adjusted and fixed” to address the debt. Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) urged action, noting Social Security’s importance to seniors. SSA Commissioner Frank Bisignano highlighted efforts to curb waste, fraud and abuse. AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan called the trustees’ warnings a “wake-up call” for Congress.

The Hill

Left-leaning analysts say the GOP plan seeks to “kill” entitlement programs. Max Richtman of the National Committee for a Secure Social Security and Medicare warned the trustees’ report is a “clarion call” for immediate reform. Critics argue that raising the retirement age or privatizing Medicare would hurt low-income seniors.

Making Sense of the New Social Security Trustees Report

Social Security’s depletion date varies: the SSA OASI projection cites 2032, while the combined OASDI estimate extends to 2034. Medicare’s HI insolvency is placed at 2033 by the trustees, but the Congressional Budget Office projects durability until 2040, noting tax cuts. Part B and D spending outlooks remain uncertain.

Making Sense of the New Social Security Trustees Report

• “House Speaker Mike Johnson said this to a conservative radio host this week: The largest spending items, the reason we’re in trouble, are because over 74 percent of federal spending is on autopilot — mandatory spending, that is, your entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and things like Social Security — they have to be adjusted and fixed.” — Mike Johnson, House Speaker

Salon

• “This should be a wake-up call: Congress needs to act,” — Myechia Minter-Jordan, AARP CEO

The Hill

• “The Social Security Trustees report is a clarion call for Congress to strengthen the program NOW before the looming depletion of the trust fund becomes a full-blown crisis. If Congress fails to act, the combined retirement and disability trust fund reserves will run dry in 2034 and beneficiaries will suffer an automatic 17% cut – a scenario few want to see happen.” — Max Richtman, NCPSSM

Making Sense of the New Social Security Trustees Report

The bipartisan Social Security Commission Act (H.R. 3289) would create a 13-member commission to propose reforms. Congressional hearings on entitlement reform are scheduled for the 2026 session, and the 2026 midterm elections will shape which legislators confront the projected cuts. Options under discussion include raising the payroll-tax cap, adjusting the full-retirement age, and reforming Medicare Advantage payments.

United State House of Representatives