Full Breakdown
Vietnam Pursues 10% Growth Target Amid Trade Deficit, Financing Shortfall and Energy Challenges
6/17/2026, 10:42:27 PM
Vietnam Keeps 10% Growth Goal Despite Trade Deficit and Inflation
Deputy Finance Minister Nguyen Duc Chi said Vietnam will keep its 10 percent GDP growth target for 2026 despite a trade deficit of about US$15 billion in the first half and inflation of 5.6 percent in May, above the 4.5 percent target. He linked the deficit to higher fuel import prices caused by the Middle East war.
Digital-Economy Programme and International Financial Center
The digital-economy programme targets a 30 percent GDP share by 2030, with 500,000 SMEs adopting digital tools, five data exchanges, nationwide fibre broadband, 5G for 99 percent of the population and digital ID for all citizens aged 14. The Vietnam International Financial Center (VIFC) in Ho Chi Minh City will host an International Stock Exchange, an SME crowdfunding platform and bond-issuance mechanisms, with officials urging clear sector-specific regulations.
Financing Gap and Energy Constraints
Meeting the 10 percent growth goal and digital targets requires about US$200 billion for transport, energy and digital projects, while total investment needs are estimated at US$1.1 trillion. Techcombank has pledged roughly US$3 billion and seeks co-investment ratios up to five-to-one. Energy supply is a bottleneck: Vietnam imported a record 65.43 million tonnes of coal in 2025 and remains dependent on imported oil and gas, exposing it to Middle-East disruptions and the looming Super El Niño.
Official Statements, Responses, and Criticism
Finance officials said higher fuel prices drove the trade deficit but expect export growth to narrow it, and they rejected the U.S. claim of forced-labour violations as misrepresenting mitigation efforts. Prime Minister Le Minh Hung ordered the finance ministry and State Bank to finalize VIFC operating rules by June. The United States has proposed tariffs of up to 12.5 percent on Vietnamese imports for alleged forced-labour breaches.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Trade-deficit estimates differ—US$15 billion for the first half versus US$13.8 billion for the first five months. Inflation stands at 5.6 percent against a 4.5 percent target. Growth forecasts range from World Bank’s 6.3 percent to the government’s 10 percent, and financing-gap estimates vary between US$200 billion and a total US$1.1 trillion need.
Verbatim Quotes
- “However, I believe that export growth will accelerate during the rest of this year, narrowing the trade deficit for the entire year,” — Nguyen Duc Chi, Deputy Finance Minister
- “There’s no way all these infrastructure investments can be financed by the local banking ecosystems,” — Jens Lottner, CEO, Techcombank
- “Let’s be clear, there’s not enough right now.” — Jens Lottner, CEO, Techcombank (on energy supply)
- “In the near future, we will establish a crowdfunding platform for small and medium-sized enterprises and startups,” — Huan, VIFC official
What’s Next
Vietnam aims to complete broadband and 5G rollout for the digital programme by 2027, finalize VIFC regulations in June, and begin construction of a Russia-partnered nuclear power plant within the decade. Ongoing talks with foreign investors seek to bridge the financing gap, while energy-supply reforms target the power shortfall needed for AI-driven industries.
