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Iraq Threatens OPEC Exit Over Low Quota Request

6/26/2026

49 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

Iraq Threatens Exit

Iraq's ministry said on June 25 2026 it will stay in OPEC or withdraw if its quota is not raised.
Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi’s government asked OPEC to raise Iraq’s quota to 5 million barrels per day and lift capacity to 7 million barrels per day.
Analysts warn that after the UAE’s May 1 2026 exit cut OPEC capacity by 14%, an Iraqi exit could cut it by another 17%.

Summary

Iraq Signs Deal

Iraq signed a $50 billion contract with Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell PLC to develop West Qurna oilfield.
Iraq’s cabinet approved a pipeline to Ceyhan that could raise export capacity from 220,000 to 770,000 barrels per day.
World Bank data shows oil revenue made up 53 % of Iraq’s GDP in 2025, with QuantCube Technology reporting exports have dried up since the Iran-Iraq war, exposing reliance on Strait of Hormuz.

Summary

Iraq Denies Exit

The Iraqi oil ministry denied reports that Baghdad was weighing an OPEC exit.
Iraq’s senior oil official urged Saudi Arabia to treat the quota issue seriously, noting a Russian source said quota would not threaten the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+ deal.
Iraq’s July OPEC quota of 4.378 million bpd and May output of about 1.48 million bpd are strained by the Iran-war-induced Strait of Hormuz blockage that cut exports.

History

Historical Context

In October 1973 OAPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut output and imposed an oil embargo that pushed world prices from $3 to $12 a barrel, triggering the first OPEC-driven energy shock. The embargo showed how collective cuts could tighten markets and force industrial nations to build strategic reserves. Iraq’s 2024 threat to quit OPEC echoes that pattern, risking a supply squeeze similar to the 1973 crisis.

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Iraq Threatens Exit

Iraq's ministry said on June 25 2026 it will stay in OPEC or withdraw if its quota is not raised.
Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi’s government asked OPEC to raise Iraq’s quota to 5 million barrels per day and lift capacity to 7 million barrels per day.
Analysts warn that after the UAE’s May 1 2026 exit cut OPEC capacity by 14%, an Iraqi exit could cut it by another 17%.

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