Full Breakdown
Iraq Presses OPEC for a Higher Production Quota Amid Threat of Exit
6/26/2026, 1:30:11 AM
Immediate Demand: Higher Quota and Possible Withdrawal
On 25 June 2026 Iraq’s oil ministry publicly urged OPEC to raise its production ceiling, warning that “a decision will have to be made regarding whether to remain in or withdraw” if the quota is not increased. The ministry reiterated that it has “no intention of withdrawing” but stressed that the current ceiling of 4.378 million barrels per day (bpd) for July is far below Iraq’s capacity, which the government says should eventually reach 5 million bpd and, in the longer term, 7 million bpd.
Background: OPEC Membership, Recent UAE Exit, and Iran-War Impact
Iraq is a founding member of OPEC (established in Baghdad in 1960) and the bloc’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia. The United Arab Emirates’ departure in May 2026 reduced core OPEC capacity by roughly 14 %; an Iraqi exit would cut it by an additional 17 % according to Bloomberg calculations. Iraq’s oil-dependent economy has been strained since the Iran-War blocked exports through the Strait of Hormuz, causing overall exports to “virtually dry up” (QuantCube data) and reducing output from 4.2 million bpd in February 2024 to 1.48 million bpd in May 2026.
Key Actors
- Salim Al-Rikabi, spokesman for the Iraqi Oil Ministry.
- Basim Muhammad Khudhair, Iraqi Oil Minister, who in May called for a 5 million bpd quota.
- Ali al-Zaidi, Prime Minister, whose administration prioritises economic reconstruction and foreign investment.
- Senior Iraqi oil ministry official, who warned Saudi Arabia and other OPEC allies to treat the matter “with the utmost seriousness.”
- OPEC+ Review Panel, conducting a technical assessment of member capacities for the 2027 baseline.
Production Data and Economic Stakes
- Oil accounts for 53 % of Iraq’s real GDP (World Bank, 2025).
- Current export capacity via the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline is slated to rise from 220 000 bpd to 770 000 bpd, offering an alternative to Hormuz.
- OPEC+ has already increased quotas for seven core members by ~600 000 bpd between April and June 2026, though many have struggled to meet the higher targets due to Hormuz disruptions.
Official Statements & Responses
The Iraqi Oil Ministry issued a statement that reports of a possible exit “do not reflect the Iraqi government’s official position.” It added that Iraq is “committed to working within the organisation’s mechanisms” and is actively participating in OPEC’s independent capacity review. OPEC and Saudi authorities have not provided comment.
Criticism & Opposition
Saudi Arabia, identified as OPEC’s de facto leader, has previously rebuked Iraq for “flouting official quotas,” reflecting tension over Iraq’s demand for a higher ceiling.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Some Reuters-cited sources said Iraq “has considered leaving OPEC,” while later ministry statements denied any formal withdrawal plan.
- Exact figures for Iraq’s sustainable production capacity remain uncertain pending the outcome of the OPEC+ technical review.
Verbatim Quotes
- “a decision will have to be made regarding whether to remain in or withdraw.” — Salim Al-Rikabi, Iraqi Oil Ministry spokesman
- “Saudi Arabia and other OPEC allies should treat this matter with the utmost seriousness. Failing that, Iraq will be compelled to consider all available options,” — Senior Iraqi oil ministry official
- “There is currently no intention for the ministry to withdraw from Opec, and we remain committed to working within the organisation’s mechanisms,” — Salim Al-Rikabi
- “What has been raised about Iraq's threat to leave OPEC does not reflect the official position of the Iraqi government, as neither the prime minister nor the government have mentioned the possibility of withdrawing.” — Iraqi Ministry of Oil statement
- “Iraq is working to restore its full oil export capacity and aims to raise oil production to 7 million barrels per day over the coming years,” — Haider al-Aboudi, Iraqi spokesperson
What’s Next
OPEC+ will finalize its 2027 production-capacity baseline in the coming weeks, a process that will directly determine Iraq’s revised quota. Iraq’s government has signaled that a “fair” allocation is essential for economic recovery, while Saudi Arabia’s response will shape the bloc’s cohesion after the UAE’s exit.
