Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Deadlocked at 47% in NYT/Siena Poll
6/30/2026, 8:57:46 PM
Deadlocked Poll Shows Equal Support for Paxton and Talarico
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely Texas voters conducted June 19-27 finds both Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico at 47 percent. The survey’s margin of error is about ±4.5 points.
Historical Context
Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn lost the GOP primary to Paxton, who secured former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. The open seat is the first chance since 1988 for a Democrat to win statewide office in Texas. Paxton entered the race after surviving an indictment, impeachment and a public divorce; Talarico, a 37-year-old legislator, emerged as the Democratic challenger.
Candidate Profiles
Ken Paxton, 63, is Texas attorney general known for lawsuits contesting the 2020 election results, celebrating the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade, and facing multiple legal and personal controversies. James Talarico, 37, serves in the Texas House, describes himself as a moderate Christian, and is training for ministry.
Poll Results and Demographic Split
Gender: Paxton leads men 57 %-36 %; Talarico leads women 56 %-38 %. Age: Talarico captures 62 % of voters 18-29 versus Paxton’s 32 %; Paxton holds 53 % of voters 65 + versus Talarico’s 41 %. Race: Paxton leads white voters 59 %-37 %; Talarico leads Black voters 80 %-13 % and Hispanic voters 61 %-29 %. Education: Paxton dominates among white voters without a college degree (68 %-27 %); Talarico leads among white college graduates. Party preference: 50 % favor a Republican Senate, 44 % a Democrat. Character: half of respondents view Paxton negatively on character, while Talarico receives higher marks on character and moral values. The 47-percent tie falls within the poll’s ±4.5-point margin of error.
Implications
A Democratic win would be the first statewide victory for the party in Texas since 1988 and would affect the partisan composition of the Senate. The strong performance among Hispanic, Black and younger voters signals shifting alignments that may affect future contests.
Criticism & Opposition
Paxton’s record includes indictment, impeachment and a public divorce; half of respondents label him “excessively radical.” Republican strategists are also highlighting Talarico’s past comment describing himself as a Christian opposed to Christianity, presenting it as a potential liability.
Verbatim Quotes
- “too extreme” — NYT/Siena poll
- “Has the right kind of morals: 51% Talarico, 39% Paxton.” — NYT/Siena poll
- “a Christian who hates Christianity.” — James Talarico, Texas state Rep.
What’s Next
The November 2026 general election will decide which candidate fills the Senate seat vacated by Cornyn. Both campaigns plan intensified outreach to swing demographics and will frame the race around character, policy and the broader national climate.
