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Texas Senate Race Tied; Economy Drives Voters, Talarico Leads Women

7/1/2026

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Summary

Story summary

The latest poll shows the Texas Senate race tied at 47% for candidate Ken Paxton and candidate Dan Talarico.
28% of Texans say the economy will decide their vote.
Talarico’s new ad stresses rising grocery and fuel costs.
Talarico leads Hispanic voters 61% and independents.
Women back Talarico by 18 points while men back Paxton by a similar margin.

History

Historical Context

On November 8 1994 the “Republican Revolution” saw Newt Gingrich’s GOP capture both chambers for the first time in 40 years and George W. Bush elected Texas governor, shifting the state toward Republican dominance; that realignment frames today’s Ken Paxton-Dan Talarico Senate contest as a test of the lasting partisan shift and underscores the importance of Senate races in Texas politics.

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Story summary

The latest poll shows the Texas Senate race tied at 47% for candidate Ken Paxton and candidate Dan Talarico.
28% of Texans say the economy will decide their vote.
Talarico’s new ad stresses rising grocery and fuel costs.
Talarico leads Hispanic voters 61% and independents.
Women back Talarico by 18 points while men back Paxton by a similar margin.

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